ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/29/07 0815Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0802Z  HANNA
.
LOCATION...MISSOURI...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN THREAT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES CONTINUES
EARLY THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NUMEROUS WEAK
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO LIFT NNE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF SHEAR AXIS AND
THIS IS HELPING TO AID IN SYNOPTIC ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION.  THE FIRST
OF THESE IMPULSES IS NOW SEEN OVER E KS.  FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
HAS HELPED TO ORGANIZE A ORGANIZED AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM SE KS THROUGH CNTRL MO.  BELIEVE THAT
RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THIS SHIELD OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE IN THE 0.2-0.4"/HR
RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS SUCH AS THE CONVECTION JUST EAST OF VIH AND ALSO NEAR PPF WHERE
RAINFALL RATES OF OVER 1.0"/HR ARE LIKELY.
.
FURTHER TO THE SW, SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRM THAT A LL
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER S ARCHER COUNTY.  ENHANCED INFLOW TO THE
N/NE OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN INTERSECTING SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND HAS RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN OK.
BEST SATELLITE SIGNATURE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WAS FROM S KIOWA/W COMANCHE
COUNTY AND EXTENDING NNE TO BLAINE/KINGFISHER COUNTIES.  HAVE SEEN VERY
LITTLE MOVEMENT TO CLOUD FIELD OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS AND DURING THIS TIME
CLOUD FIELD HAS EVOLVED INTO A WEDGE TYPE SIGNATURE WHICH IS A SATELLITE
SIGNATURE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.  NLDN NOT INDICATING CG LIGHTNING WITH THIS
FEATURE SO WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL RATES TO BE IN THE 0.3-0.6"/HR RANGE, BUT
THE SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
.
FULL DISK WV IMAGERY INDICATING THAT HEIGHT RISES ARE SLOWING PUSHING WEST
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH BEST MOISTURE AND
THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
UNTIL THEN THOUGH, BELIEVE MOST ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD BE
FROM F05 TO THE JWG/END AREA WHERE RAINFALL OF 1-2" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  FURTHER TO THE NE, SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AN AXIS FROM PPF TO NEAR THE STL
METRO AREA.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3887 9337 3884 9208 3823 9162 3728 9321 3720 9500 3651
9643 3606 9701 3506 9792 3406 9877 3409 9944 3467 9945
3544 9905 3684 9817 3841 9534
.
NNNN
 
Full Size Graphic


-