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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/27/07 0355Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0345Z  JS
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LOCATION...CENTRAL TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY FOCUSING ON SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX FOR GREATEST THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CERTAINLY A COMPLICATED SITUATION
FOR MUCH OF TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH 2 LARGE BATCHES OF CONVECTION
ONGOING. CURRENTLY WATCHING POTENTIALLY AN EVEN GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL UNFOLDING FOR THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF CENT TX
MCS AS A BIT OF A MADDOX FLASH FLOOD SIGNATURE COULD BE DEVELOPING. HAVE
NOTICED SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD TOP COOLING DURING PAST HOUR OR SO FOR
REGION INCLUDING LAMPASSAS/BURNETT/BELL/MILAM COUNTIES. THIS COUPLED WITH
THE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS SEEN BY GOES SOUNDER PW DATA
WHICH INDICATES A CHANNEL OF GREATER THAN 2" PW VALUES EXTENDING FROM
FAR S TX NORTHWARD RIGHT INTO SOUTHERN PART OF MCS. ALSO HAVE SEEN SOME
VERY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS WITH LLANO(KAQO) REPORTING 81(TEMP) OVER 81(TD)
IN THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATING TECHNIQUES
HAVE BEEN SHOWING MAINLY 1.5"-2.0" ESTIMATED TOTALS WITH SOME ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OVER 2" FOR THE PAST 2-3 HOURS ALONG THIS SOUTHERN END OF THE
LINE. HOWEVER BASED ON THE INCREASE IN CLOUD TOP COVERAGE AND CLOUD TOP
COOLING ALONG WITH MORE CELLS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND MERGING IN
BELIEVE THAT TOTALS COULD SHORTLY RISE TO THE 2-3" RANGE FOR APPROXIMATE
COUNTIES INCLUDING LAMPASSAS/BURNETT/BELL/MILAM.
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ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE SW AND EVEN W FLANK OF MCS WHERE
REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING HAS BEEN A PROBLEM FROM AROUND STEPHENS/EASTLAND
COUNTIES. NOW IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE AREA FROM THESE COUNTIES
SOUTHEASTWARD TO LAMPASSAS IS FILLING IN. AS IF THIS WASN'T ENOUGH TO
CONSIDER, MAY EVEN HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM FARTHER TO THE NW TO SEE IF
MCS OVER NW TX PANHANDLE HAS SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
CENT TX MCS. AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN AROUND 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3298 9938 3146 9632 3010 9695 2981 9860 3139 9941
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