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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/23/07 0215Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0202Z
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LOCATION...W ILLINOIS/N MISSOURI/SW TO SE IOWA/SE NEBRASKA
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ATTN WFOS...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...PRIMARY HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES FOR REGION OF SE IA NOW
SPREADING INTO FAR NE MO/W IL. SECONDARY SHORT THERM THREAT FOR RATHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE RAINFALL EXISTS WITH LINE DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OVER SE NEB/SW IA/NW MO.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...EARLIER SWOMCD ALLUDED TO THE SPEED OF
GUST FRONT CAUSING THE MCS TO WEAKEN AND THAT CERTAINLY HAS REDUCED
SOME OF THE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY PARTICULARLY OVER S CENT IA/N CENT
MO. UNFORTUNATELY ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF MCV MOVING TO THE
EAST ACROSS E IA HAS HIT THE SAME SPOTS WHICH RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. 3 HOUR AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE
INDICATING AT LEAST 2-3" FOR PORTIONS OF SE IA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
BUT WOULD ALSO EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE 3-4" RANGE FROM AROUND
IOWA COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD TO HENRY/LEE COUNTIES. TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE MCV WHERE BEST WARM
ADVECTION EXISTS ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER W IL SO BASED ON THIS
BELIEVE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ITS FOCUS GRADUALLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NE MO/W IL DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER TO
THE WEST A STRONG LINE IS STEADILY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE NEB/SW
IA INTO NW MO AND TOWARD NE KS. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE RECENTLY HAS
REDUCED THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AT ANY ONE SPOT BUT THE THREAT
STILL EXISTS FOR CELL MERGERS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF CELL TRAINING TO
PRODUCE ESTIMATED RATES TO OVER 2"/HR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4215 9163 3955 8931 3878 9629 4084 9696
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