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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/22/07 2325Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2315Z
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LOCATION...W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI/W CENT TO E AND SE IOWA/E NEBRASKA
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ATTN WFOS...LSX...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...MCS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AT THE
NOSE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LINE OVER S CENT IA HAS BOWED
SOUTHWARD AND EXHIBITED OUTFLOW CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST HOUR
AS MCV HAS FORMED PER RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP AROUND THE JASPER/MARION
COUNTY BORDER AREA. THE FORMATION OF THIS MCV HAS ALSO INCREASED THE
LIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY WITH RAPID
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER SE IA EXTENDING TO THE SE INTO W
IL. THIS IS DEFINITELY A VERY OMINOUS SIGN OF AN EVOLVING VERY SERIOUS
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HEAVY RAINS WHICH FELL
IN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ALREADY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. BELIEVE THE MCV
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE ESE AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
FILL IN AND INTENSIFY CLOSE TO THE STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ITS PATH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH NUMEROUS
CELL MERGERS AND CELL TRAINING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE
LOCALLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND ADDED LIFT FROM MCV/SFC
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS FAVORABLE SPOT AT THE NOSE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS EXPECT RAIN RATES TO EASILY EXCEED 2"/HR. IF THIS WASN'T ENOUGH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC TWIST BACK NEAR
THE SD/NEB BORDER WHICH ADDS YET ANOTHER COMPONENT TO THIS SITUATION.
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OTHER SPOT OF CONCERN FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS MCS EXTENDS
FROM SW IA BACK TOWARD THE IA/NEB BORDER WHERE SOME WEST TO EAST CELL
TRAINING AND BACK BUILDING ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LEAD TO RAIN RATES CLOSE
TO OR EXCEEDING 2"/HR. GOOD ENHANCED IR SIGNATURE HAS SHOWN CONSISTENT
SIGNS OF BUILDING STEADILY TO THE WEST ALONG ENHANCED CU LINE WHICH
STRETCHES ALONG BOUNDARY BACK INTO S CENT NEB.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3983 9121 3983 9121
4244 9269 4067 9003 3971 9134 4135 9641
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