ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/22/07 2200Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2145Z  JS
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LOCATION...SOUTHERN TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...LARGE CLUSTER OF EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO AFFECT S TX.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HAVE NOTED SOME EXTREMELY COLD
CLOUD TOPS IN RECENT IR IMAGES TO AROUND -80C CENTERED OVER JIM HOGG
COUNTY. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER S TX AS COMPLEX HAS GROWN AND
INTENSIFIED. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OVERSHOOTING TOPS STILL OVER
JIM HOGG COUNTY WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY/RADAR COMPOSITE LOOPS SHOWING MORE
STRONG CELLS MOVING UP FROM STARR COUNTY INTO JIM HOGG COUNTY. AUTOMATED
SATELLITE ESTIMATING TECHNIQUES ARE INDICATING ESTIMATES INCREASING
RAPIDLY NOW TO OVER 3" FOR JIM HOGG COUNTY AND OVER 2" FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES INCLUDING WEBB/DUVAL/ZAPATA/STARR DURING THE
PAST 2-3 HOURS. CERTAINLY GIVEN THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE PRESENT (PW'S
OVER 2"/SFC DEWPOINTS WELL OVER 70F) WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF
THESE TOTALS COULD EVEN BE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF ACTUAL TOTALS.
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WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS APPARENT SMALL UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX DEPICTED
WITH ANTICYCLONIC BULGE IN CIRRUS STREAK MOVING ACROSS CENT TX. THIS
ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT TO THE SW OVER CENT
MEXICO HAS CREATED FAVORABLE LARGER SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS. DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG WITH S AND SE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF OF GULF OF MEXICO AND
LOCALIZED SFC CONVERGENCE OVER EXTREME S TX HAS ALSO HELPED TO FOCUS
AND REGENERATE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
COMPLEX. BELIEVE THE SHORT TERM MAJOR HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE
FOR REGION CENTERED AROUND JIM HOGG COUNTY WITH ACTIVITY ALSO EXPANDING
FARTHER TO THE NW INCLUDING THE COUNTIES OF WEBB/DUVAL/LASALLE/DIMMITT
AND POSSIBLY EVENTUALLY MAVERICK. AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC WILL
BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3019 9899 2956 9695 2594 9874 2699 10069
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