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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/22/07 2045Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2032Z  JS
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LOCATION...WESTERN ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL TO EASTERN IOWA
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ATTN WFOS...DVN...DMX...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...EVOLVING MCS SET TO MOVE TO THE ESE ACROSS AREAS OF EASTERN
IA/WESTERN IL WHICH WERE AFFECTED BY EARLIER HEAVY RAINS.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...A NUMBER OF FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER
FOR THE WELL ADVERTISED CONVECTIVE EVENT UNDERWAY AND SET TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER W CENT TO E IA/W IL AND POSSIBLY ALSO INCLUDING N MO. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF OLD MCS/MCV IN CENT IA WHICH COINCIDES WITH LOCATION OF SFC BOUNDARY
WHERE RAIN COOLED MORE STABLE AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN IA HAS REINFORCED
THE THERMAL GRADIENT. MOISTURE HAS ALSO POOLED ACROSS SE NEB/S HALF OF
IA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NOTED ABOVE 70F AND GOES SOUNDER/GPS PW VALUES
IN THE 1.6"-1.8" RANGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POSSIBLE VORT CENTER
APPROACHING THE DISCUSSION AREA AS SOME CYCLONIC TWIST IN THE IMAGERY
HAS BEEN SEEN DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO CENTERED ALONG THE NEB/SD
BORDER. IN RESPONSE TO THESE POSITIVE FORCING FACTORS, THE CIRRUS
CANOPY OVER CELLS DEVELOPING IN W CENT IA JUST N AND W OF DES MOINES
HAS RAPIDLY COOLED AND EXPANDED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING TOWERING CU AND NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
IN LINES TO THE SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY THE SW OF PRIMARY BATCH. SOME
IR SIGNATURE OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED HERE WITH A
WEST-EAST ELONGATION OF COLDER TOPS SEEN SETTING UP WHICH HAS LED TO
A BIT OF TRAINING/BACKBUILDING OF ACTIVITY FROM POLK TO GREENE/GUTHRIE
COUNTIES. SATELLITE BASED RATES ARE ALREADY AS HIGH AS 1.5-2.0"/HR GIVEN
THE RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING WHICH HAS OCCURRED WITH LOCALIZED ESTIMATED
TOTALS LIKELY ALREADY EXCEEDING 2". EXPECT CONTINUED NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT
TO OCCUR IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR ALONG THE S AND SW PORTIONS OF THE
COMPLEX AND MERGE INTO THE EXISTING COMPLEX AS THE ENTIRE BATCH MOVES
SLOWLY TO THE ESE. AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC WILL BE AVAILABLE ON
THE INTERNET SITE BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4262 9413 4198 9018 4045 9090 4112 9468
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