ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/20/07 0414Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0400Z  KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...W TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...LARGE MCS AFFECTING OK AND TX PANHANDLE...SMALL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX S TX PANHANDLE INTO W CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
NW GULF OF MEXICO THRU SE TX...N CENTRAL/NE TX INTO C OK HAVE FUELED
LARGE MCS CENTERED IN OKLAHOMA AND S KS.  CELLS ACROSS INTERIOR NE OK
MERGING WITH CELLS COMING SE FROM S CENTRAL KS AND WILL CONTINUE HVY
RAIN/FF THREAT GOING CENTERED ON TULSA AREA AND ENVIRONS FOR THE NEXT
1-2HRS WITH RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES IN A 30-75 MINUTE TIME PERIOD.
BULK OF ACTIVITY WITH LARGE MCS MOVING SOUTH AND SW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND W OK AND INTO THE N TX PANHANDLE.  THIS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE AND
ALLOW 1.0"-2.5" RAIN PER 40 TO 90 MINUTES TO OCCUR IN ANY ONE SPOT AS
INDIVIDAUL CELLS CONTINUE SOUTH THRU C OK...W OK AND THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.  CHANCE THAT NORTHERN PART OF SMALL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE COULD MERGE/INTERACT WITH WESTERN FRINGES
OF LARGE OK MCS AND THAT COULD RESULT IN HVY RAIN FOR SE PORTION OF TX
PANHANDLE...BUT RIGHT NOW THE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES ARE NOW TRYING TO
MERGE...SO HVYST RAIN IN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE WITH SEPARATE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OUTFLOWS.   NOT EXPECT W TX/S TX PANHANDLE COMPLEX TO MAKE MUCH
MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS DRIER AIR NEAR MAF AREA CAN HAVE AFFECTING
OF BLOCKING/IMPEDING MOVEMENT SOUTH OF HVY RAIN.
DIFFERENT STORY TO THE NE IN W AND C OK AS MOISTURE HIGHER AND DEEPER
AND WILL HVY RAIN TO PENETRATE SOUTH THRU SW AND C OK FOR HVY RAIN AND
HEIGHTENED FF THREAT.     WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...
GRAPHICAL SATELLITE ANALYSIS ON WEB PAGE AT ADDRESS BELOW.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3694 9667 3595 9528 3526 9884 3386 10179 3496 10233
3665 10051
.
NNNN
 
Full Size Graphic


-