ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/17/07 0245Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0230Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...S CENTRAL TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH HEAVY RAIN BURSTS...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER ATASCOSA COUNTY
CONVECTION MERGING IN WITH RAPID COOLING DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE WEST NEAR
THE ATASCOSA-FRIO COUNTY BORDER AREA.  EARLIER ATASCOSA CONVECTION NOW
CENTERED IN MCMULLEN WITH TAIL TO THE SW HELPING DEVELOP CLUSTERS INTO
ORGANIZED COOL TOPS IN LASALLE COUNTY.  BIG CONCERN IS SOME BACKBUILDING
AND FURTHER MERGERS AND POSSIBILITY THAT COMPLEX WON'T WANT TO MOVE FROM
THE FRIENDLY CONFINES OF HIGH/DEEP MOISTURE WHERE PWS CLOSE TO 2.0".
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW INDIVIDUAL CELLS TO MOVE SLOWLY AND THAT ALSO
WILL CREATE HVY RAIN CONCERNS THAT COULD EXPAND A BIT FROM CURRENT AREA.
PRETTY STABLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS...SO IF THE AREA OF CONVECTION DECIDES
TO MOVE...EAST OR BACKBUILDING WEST OR VERY SLOW DRIFT TO SOUTH IS ABOUT
ALL IT CAN DO.  AND CONCERN IS ALSO FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO POSSIBLY
CONTINUE BEYOND 6Z.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...GRAPHIC ON THE WEB TO FOLLOW.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2996 9943 2972 9685 2786 9700 2791 9952
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