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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/12/07 0330Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0315Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...NEBRASKA...COLORADO...
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ATTN WFOS...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...
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EVENT...QUASI-STATIONARY MCS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MCS REMAINS ANCHORED OVER PORTIONS OF SW
NE AND NE CO THIS EVENING WITH NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT SEEN ON MOST RECENT
IMAGERY OVER LOGAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTY THAT LOOK TO MERGE INTO THE
LARGER OVERALL COMPLEX ON THE SHORT TERM.  VERY PERSISTENT OVERSHOOTING
TOP THAT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CHASE COUNTY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS APPEARS AS THOUGH IT HAS LIFTED SLOWLY NE AND ALSO WEAKENED.
MAXIMUM MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES WITH THAT CELL WHEN IT WAS OVER CHASE
COUNTY WERE RUNNING ANYWHERE BETWEEN 5-7".
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LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM NE
WASHINGTON COUNTY THROUGH EXTREME N CHEYENNE COUNTY AND THEN JUST TO
THE NW OF MCK.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESERVOIR OVER KS/OK (GOES
DPI CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG) IS BEING ISENTROPICALLY TRANSPORTED BY
BACKED 30KT LLJ OVER ABOVE MENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR
CONTINUAL CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT.  CURRENTLY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
ORIENTATION AND LLJ AXIS WOULD FAVOR REDEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE OVER
SEDGWICK/PHILLIPS/YUMA COUNTY AREA AND ALSO POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CHASE/DUNDY COUNTY AREA.  FROM THERE DEEP LAYER
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO TRAIN DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF
SW NE.  CORFIDI VECTORS/850-300 THICKNESS PATTERN SUGGEST THAT OVERALL
MCS MOTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE TO A MORE SE TRAJECTORY.
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SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALONG WITH TRAINING/REDEVELOPMENT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES TO FEATURE RAINFALL
RATES OF UP TO 2.0"/HR.  OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WOULD THINK HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM N YUMA/PHILLIPS COUNTY TO
ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF OGA.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3" ARE LIKELY WITH
SOME ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4158 10090 4122 10003 4052 9962 4020 10021 4008 10112
4006 10305 4096 10335 4143 10229
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