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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/11/07 0715Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0655Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...MISSOURI...OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...QUASI-STATIONARY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES-12 FULL DISK IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME THAT ORIGINATES FROM THE E PAC/CNTRL
MEXICO EXTENDS THROUGH THE RED RIVER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
SUBTLE IMPULSES HAVE BEEN LIFTING NE ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF
MOISTURE PLUME TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION OVER THE REGION.  MOST RECENT
IMPULSE NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH IT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NE INTO E KANSAS/SW MO.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN REPEATEDLY GENERATING OVER PORTIONS OF N CNTRL OK
AND SE KANSAS AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY TRAINING DOWNSTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF
SW MO.  CURRENTLY BEST IR HEAVY RAIN SATELLITE SIGNATURE LOOKS TO BE FROM
N COWLEY AND EXTENDING INTO N BARTON COUNTY AS CONVECTION ALONG THIS AXIS
HAS ALIGNED WELL WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW TO ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF TRAINING.
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AXIS, CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
OVER LABETTE AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES AND APPEARS AS THOUGH IT IS MERGING
INTO COMPLEX NEAR CRAWFORD/CHEROKEE COUNTIES.  0655Z IMAGE SHOWS VERY
RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING WITH A RATHER PRONOUNCED OVERSHOOTING TOP WITH
THE CELL JUST W JLM.
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0Z EVENING SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING VERY FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR HIGH
PE (DEEP ABOVE 0C LAYER WITH HIGH MEAN RH).  THIS COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS BETWEEN 1.80-2.20" OVER THE REGION AND THE TENDENCY
FOR TRAINING/REGENERATING CONVECTION SHOULD HELP TO ALLOW FOR LOCAL
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.0"/HR IN ANY AREAS OF REPEATED TRAINING.
VEERED LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED INTO BACK END OF
COMPLEX AND THIS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR REGENERATING
CONVECTION ON THE SW END OF COMPLEX WITH DOWNSTREAM TRAINING INTO SE KS/SW
MO.  AT THIS TIME HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG AN APPROXIMATE
AXIS FROM WLD TO ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF JLM WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 1-3"
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3859 9524 3858 9402 3831 9334 3736 9280 3680 9339 3649
9470 3643 9689 3665 9772 3717 9777 3814 9619
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