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SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/01/07 0111Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12 0100Z  CK
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LOCATION...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA..SW KANSAS
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ATTN WFOS...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MCS POTENTIAL
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CURRENTLY MONITORING TWO AREAS WITH
CLUSTERS OF HVY TSTMS. ONE IS OVER OK PANHANDLE AND VCNTY AND THE OTHER
IS OVER E NM/W TX/NW TX. ATTM THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THESE
TWO GROUPS OF THUNDERSTORMS AREAS END UP MERGING OVER E TX PANHANDLE/OK
OR REMAIN DETACHED.
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THE CNVTN INVOF OK PANHANDLE FORMED OVER SE CO WITHIN SFC CONVERGENCE MAX
AND HAS NOW MOVED SE INTO BETTER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT..WITH SFC DEW POINTS
AROUND 60F AND INCRGLY HIER PW'S. THE CNVTN IS ALSO LOCATED ALONG NRN
FRINGE OF JETLET AND WV PLUME. WHILE OVER SE CO..MANUAL STLT ESTIMATES
INDICATED THAT BTWN 2-3" OF RAIN HAD FALLEN OVER BACA COUNTY. ATTM
HVY STMS ARE MOVG EWD ACRS DALLAM COUNTY/TX..TEXAS COUNTY/OK.. MORTON
COUNTY/KS.
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THE CNVTN OVER E NM..W/NW TX..CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
EWD. SOME EXPANSION TO THE N IS OCCURRING..WITH TSTMS JUST SE OF AMA MOVG
NE. THIS PORTION IS WHAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS TO WHETHER IT MERGES
WITH CNVTN MOVG ACRS OK/TX PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE..PREVIOUS SPENES MENTIONED
MERGER OVER S HALE COUNTY WITH 1"/HALF HOUR AND MORE TSTMS APPROACHING
FM THE W. AT 0045Z A NEW MERGER OCCURRED OVER HALE..WITH EXPANSION OF
COLD TOPS AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS NR -70C. THIS AREA OF STMS FM E NM TO NE OF
LBB IS MOVG INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PER GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY..WITH PWS CLOSE TO 1.5" AND LI VALUES BTWN -5 TO -10C. THE
CNVTN IS ALSO LOCATED BTWN JETLET TO THE N..AS MENTIONED ABOVE..AND
STRONGER NW-SE JET STREAK ACRS S NM/SW TX.. WITH DECENT UPPR DIFFLUENCE.
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AT THE LEAST..WOULD EXPECT EACH OF THE ABOVE AREAS OF CNVTN TO CONTINUE
TO EVOLVE INTO MCS SYSTEMS...THEY ARE BOTH IN THE EARLY STAGES. AT
THIS TIME..THE SRN ONE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO SCOPE OF
HVY RAIN.  WILL HAVE TO SEE WHETHER NRN FRINGE OF SRN COMPLEX MERGER
WITH COMPLEX OVER PANHANDLE AREA AND ULTIMATELY SPREADS INTO W OK. IN
THE MEANTIME..A POTENTIALLY SERIOUS SITUATION IS DEVELOPING OVER HALE
AND LAMB COUNTIES..N AND NW OF LBB..WHERE SIGNIFICANT CELL MERGING
IS OCCURRING AND OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. IT IS
ESTIMATED THAT OVER 2" HAS OCCURRED..WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-3" LIKELY.

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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3690 10165 3593 9921 3327 9969 3315 10300 3629 10269
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