ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/29/07 0011Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12  2345Z  CK
.
LOCATION...W SOUTH DAKOTA...E WYOMING
.
ATTN WFOS...ABR...UNR...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...
.
EVENT...TSTMS INCR AS ADDITIONAL STMS OVR WY APPROACH
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...TSTMS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DEVELOPING
OVER W SD..WITH THE COLDEST AND MOST OMINOUS LOOKING CELLS OVER BUTTE
AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES. GOES SOUNDER LI AND PW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DURING
LATE AFTN AND EVENING HRS INSTABILITY AND LL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCR IN
MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. LI VALUES ARE AROUND
-5C AND PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1.2".
.
FOR THE SHORT TERM..AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE COLDEST TOP CELL IS OVER
LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH -69C CLOUD TOP. STRONG TSTM OVER NE WY..CROOK
COUNTY..IS MOVG RAPIDLY EWD AND WILL MERGE WITH STMS OVER SD COUNTIES OF
LAWRENCE/BUTTE IN THE NEXT HR OR SO..WHICH WILL EXPAND THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. OTHER TSTMS OVER ERN/NE WY HAVE
BEEN INCRG AS WELL AND MOVG RAPIDLY TWD THE E AND NE.
.
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS..WITH RECENT TRENDS PER DISCUSSION ABOVE AND
OTHER FACTORS TO BE DISCUSSED..WOULD EXPECT THE GOOD POSSIBILITY OF MCS
FORMATION TONIGHT. UPPR LOW OVER SW MONTANA IS STRENGTHENING PER GOES
WV IMAGERY ANIMATION..AND ATTENDANT UPR TROF IS NOW SHIFTING EWD. AS
UPPR TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD..WOULD EXPECT CNVTN OVER WY TO INCR
FURTHER AND TRAIN INTO W SD WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN FURTHER INCR
IN CNVTV COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THERE AS WELL. EWD SHIFT OF UPR TROF IS
ALSO BEGINNING TO CHANNEL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS WY..WITH 3 INITIALLY
SEPARATE MOISTURE PLUMES COMBINING. THE INCR IN LL MOISTURE PER GOES
SOUNDER PW AND CHANNELING OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE PER GOES WV IMAGERY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL TO MCS DEVELOPMENT AND HVY RAINFALL.
.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL SPENES MESSAGES LATER ON
AS SITUATION DEVELOPS.  IN THE MEANTIME..REFER TO GRAPHIC ACCOMPANYING
THIS SPENES..AVAILABLE AT THE WEB ADDRESS BELOW IN APPX 10 MINUTES;
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 4575 10100 4448 10141 4413 10388 4571 10381
.
NNNN
 
Full Size Graphic


-