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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/28/07 1805Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1745Z  JS
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LOCATION...EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...ANOTHER WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED BATCH OF CONVECTION
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL IN REGION OF LOWER AVERAGE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VISIBLE LOOP DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
IN CU FIELD SPIRALING AROUND CENT TX. TO ITS EAST A PERSISTENT BAND
OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING
WHILE TRAINING FOR A HOUR OR SO ACROSS SPOTS WITH LOW FFG VALUES FROM
RECENT DELUGES. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES DURING THE MORNING (PAST
3-6 HOURS) HAVE RANGED MAINLY FROM 1-2" WITH PATCHES OF GREATER THAN
2" FROM AROUND COLORADO/AUSTIN COUNTIES TO BURLESON/MILAM/ROBERTSON
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO HAVE ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
AND IS ALSO IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH ACTIVITY MOVING UP RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTH. THE MERGERS SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE REGION FROM HOUSTON
NORTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE APPARENT AVERAGE FFG VALUES ARE
A BIT HIGHER. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THERE (SOUTH AND WEST OF HOUSTON)
A WELL DEFINED SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS STILL EXISTS AND NUMEROUS CELLS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH FREQUENT CELL MERGERS ALSO OCCURRING. EXPECT A
CONTINUING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN THE APPROXIMATE REGION FROM AROUND
JACKSON/MATAGORDA COUNTIES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE HOUSTON METRO AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR AND POSSIBLY LONGER AS AREA OF CELL DEVELOPMENT
AND CONVERGENCE AXIS IS PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW. GIVEN THE MOISTURE
PROFILES AND RECENT OBS FROM AROUND HOUSTON(KHOU) EXPECT RAIN RATES AROUND
1.5"/HR WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED CELLS TO 2"/HR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3253 9549 2886 9329 2779 9646 3219 9711
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