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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/28/07 1155Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1145Z  JS
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LOCATION...CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...INCREASING BATCH OF SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY IN REGION OF VERY LOW
AVERAGE FFG VALUES.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...FOR PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS SE TX ALONG APPROXIMATE AXIS STRETCHING FROM
AROUND WILLIAMSON/TRAVIS COUNTIES TO LAVACA/JACKSON COUNTIES. AUTOMATED
SATELLITE ESTIMATING TECHNIQUE IS INDICATING THAT A MAX RAINFALL OF
GREATER THAN 3" DURING PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS OCCURRED OVER LAVACA
COUNTY. IT'S NOT SURPRISING THAT RADAR/OBSERVATIONS FROM THERE (PER
RECENT FFW FROM EWX) INDICATE HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RATHER SUBTLE
APPEARANCE OF THE ACTIVITY IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH LEADS TO
UNDERESTIMATING. CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CELLS DEVELOPING
AND MERGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION OVER
JACKSON/LAVACA COUNTIES SO THE SITUATION WILL ONLY WORSEN THERE IN THE
SHORT TERM. FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THE CONVECTION DOESN'T APPEAR TO
BE QUITE AS INTENSE BUT IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 1-2" RANGE/3 HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF GONZALES/FAYETTE/BASTROP/LEE/TRAVIS/WILLIAMSON COUNTIES.
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CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN ZONE OF CONVERGING SFC WINDS AIDED BY SMALL
SPEED MAX/IMPULSE MOVING UP FROM MEXICO/S TX AS SEEN ON IR/WATER VAPOR
LOOPS. BELIEVE THIS BATCH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BUT PROGRESS WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW GIVEN THE FACT THAT
IT IS LOCATED RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE THE FAVORABLE ZONE OF SFC CONVERGENCE
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3152 9705 2880 9514 2797 9637 3065 9847
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