ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/27/07 1940Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1915Z   LIDDICK
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LOCATION...SOUTHERN TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH APPROACHING VORT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VIS IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CONGLOMERATE
OF CELLS DEVELOPING BETWEEN A VORT OVER WRN ZAVALA COUNTY IN S TX AND AN
AREA OF HEAVY CELLS INVOF ATASCOSA COUNTY IN S TX.  HEAVIEST RAINS LOOK
TO BE OVER KARNES/ATASCOSA COUNTIES WHERE SOME AREAS IN KARNES COUNTY
HAVE SEEN AN ESTIMATED 3.5" IN THE PAST 60-90 MIN DUE TO A STATIONARY
CELL AND THEN A MERGER PRODUCING A RAIN BURST.  ESTIMATING RAIN RATES
OVER ATASCOSA COUNTY ARE UP TO 3.0"/HR WITH SOME AREAS SEEING 1.5"-2.0"
IN 30 MIN DUE TO A RAPIDLY COOLING OVERSHOOTING TOP SEEN ON IR/VIS
IMAGERY OVER THE E CNTRL PORTION OF THE COUNTY.

LOOKING A LITTLE AHEAD...THINKING CELL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE AS THE
VORT MOVES CLOSER WITH MANY CELL MERGERS OCCURRING..BOTH LEADING TO MUCH
MORE RAIN EFFICIENT CELLS.  WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.75"..EXPECTING THAT
CELLS COULD PRODUCE RATES AS HIGH AS 2.0"/30 MIN AT TIMES AS VORT AND
MERGING ALLOW EL TEMPS TO BE REACHED FASTER AND LITTLE STEERING MAKING
FOR VERY SLOW CELL MOVEMENT.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

CHECK WEB IN APPROX 10 MIN FOR ASSOCIATED GARPHIC.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2930 9745 2781 9682 2629 9741 2734 9896 2855 9943 2913
9889
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