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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/27/07 1455Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1445Z  JS
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LOCATION...S CENT OKLAHOMA/N CENT TO SE TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...TRENDS CONCERNING SEVERAL AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...
FOR S CENT OK/N CENT TX...RECENT TRENDS FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE
HEAVIEST RAIN PRODUCING CELLS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX OVER S CENT OK/FAR N
TX HAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTED SOUTHWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BAND JOINING THIS COMPLEX AND THE REMNANT
S CENT TX COMPLEX HAS BEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD AS WELL. OBJECTIVE
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WELL DEFINED SFC BASED CONVERGENCE AXIS CENTERED RIGHT
OVER AND INCLUDING THE REGION OF S CENT OK/FAR N CENT TX BETWEEN THE TWO
AREAS OF CONVECTION. EXPECT THE AREAS TO CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH LIKELY
BATCH OF INTENSIFYING CONVECTION FILLING IN OVER COUNTIES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO COVER THE DALLAS-FT. WORTH
REGION. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW
APPROXIMATELY 2-4" ACROSS PORTIONS OF CARTER/MURRAY/JOHNSTON/MARSHALL/LOVE
COUNTIES OF S OK AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE COOKE/GRAYSON BORDER OF FAR N TX.
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FOR CENT TO SE TX...AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN KEYING IN
ON REPEATING CONVECTION WITH DECENT IR ENHANCEMENT AROUND PORTIONS OF
BELL/FALLS/CORYELL/MCLENNAN/HILL COUNTIES WHERE ESTIMATES FOR THE PAST
4-5 HOURS ARE IN THE 2-3" RANGE. OLD MCV JUST NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO
MOVING TO THE NORTH HAS BEEN A PRIMARY FACTOR IN FOCUSING THIS BATCH
OF CONVECTION. IMAGERY THROUGH 1445Z STILL INDICATES SOME ACTIVE CELLS
ALONG THIS LINE SO TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO ADD UP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
HOUR. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TRAINING CELLS HAVE PERSISTED
FOR QUITE SOME TIME WITH LAVACA COUNTY APPARENTLY CATCHING THE BRUNT OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE ESTIMATING
TECHNIQUES ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TOO WELL GIVEN THE WARMER CLOUD TOPS
PRESENT BUT HAVE EVERY REASON TO BELIEVE THE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS QUITE
GOOD WITH RATES ESTIMATED TO OVER 2"/HR LOCALLY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS
WHICH NOW STRETCH FROM COLORADO/LAVACA COUNTIES TO VICTORIA/REFUGIO
COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS SITUATION TO CONTINUE FOR A WHILE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SFC DATA SHOWS GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER
SE AND FAR S TX AS WELL WITH VISIBLE LOOPS SHOWING NORTHWARD MOVING CELLS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG AND OFF THE S TX COAST. MAY
ALSO NEED TO WATCH UPSTREAM SMALL MCS ALONG RIO GRANDE TO SEE IF THIS
SPREADS EAST AND LINKS UP WITH SE TX ACTIVITY. IF THIS OCCURS IT COULD
CREATE A VERY SERIOUS SITUATION OVER S AND SE TX. ANNOTATED GRAPHIC OF
SATELLITE FEATURES SHOULD BE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN
APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3546 9703 3541 9554 2765 9661 2772 9830 3136 9826
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