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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/27/07 1235Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1215Z  JS
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LOCATION...SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...WELL DEVELOPED CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OK CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATIONS. MCS DECAYING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX BUT CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND FILL IN BETWEEN
HERE AND OK MCS.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...FOR N TX/S OK...SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC
AND UPPER AIR DATA ALL INDICATE WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CENTERED OVER S CENT OK. THIS CIRCULATION HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A POSSIBLE NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD
DRIFT DETECTED. THE RESULT HAS BEEN SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE ESTIMATED
RAIN TOTALS OVER APPROXIMATELY THE PAST 6 HOURS. AUTOMATED SATELLITE
ESTIMATING TECHNIQUES ARE INDICATING TOTALS BETWEEN 4-6" ACROSS PORTIONS
OF STEPHENS/GARVIN/CARTER COUNTIES OF S OK WITH 2.5-3.5" ESTIMATED FOR
MURRAY(OK)/LOVE(OK)/COOKE(TX) COUNTIES. IR/VIS LOOPS THROUGH 1215Z ALONG
WITH RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP SHOW STRONGEST ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS REGION HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COMPLEX WITH VISIBLE
IMAGERY PICKING UP ON SOME GOOD OVERSHOOTING TOPS AROUND CARTER/LOVE
COUNTIES WHERE RATES ARE ESTIMATED AT LEAST TO 2.0"/HR.
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CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE MORNING FOR N CENT TO SE TX AS REMNANTS
OF OLD MCS AND MCV OVER BEXAR COUNTY ARE NOW CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER
SCALE CIRCULATION OVER S OK/FAR N TX. THE RESULT HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS CONVERGENCE ZONE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED. EXPECT TRAINING
TO QUICKLY BECOME A PROBLEM ESPECIALLY IN POCKETS OF LOWER FFG VALUES
POTENTIALLY ACROSS A VERY LARGE REGION FROM AROUND LAVACA/FAYETTE
COUNTIES OF SE TX NORTHWARD TO MILAM/BELL THEN POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
UP TO THE TX/OK BORDER REGION ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF THAT COMPLEX. AT
THIS POINT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAINS DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO HAS BEEN ALONG AXIS FROM LAVACA NORTHWARD TO AROUND
FALLS COUNTY WHERE LOCALIZED ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 1-2" RANGE. ANNOTATED
GRAPHIC OF SATELLITE FEATURES SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET SITE
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3570 9724 3532 9517 2783 9702 2842 9830 3061 9843 3300
9792
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