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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/26/07 1550Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1545Z  JS
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LOCATION...NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...VERY SLOW MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...3 HOUR AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1.5-2.5" ALONG ENTIRE LENGTH OF LINE STRETCHING
FROM COASTAL SE TX TO HILL/NAVARRO COUNTIES. HOWEVER LOCALIZED TOTALS
TO 3" AND POSSIBLY HIGHER ARE LIKELY AS AUTOMATED TECHNIQUE FOCUSES
MORE ON CLOUD TOPS AND UNDERESTIMATES THE EFFICIENCY OF THE WARM CLOUD
LAYER DEPTH (AROUND 4KM) AS SEEN ON 12Z RAOB SOUNDINGS. CURRENTLY THE
AREA WHICH STANDS OUT THE BEST IN IR LOOPS IS THE REGION CENTERED
AROUND COLORADO COUNTY WHERE MESOLOW HAS FORMED PER RADAR LOOP AND
RECENT SWOMCD. AS POINTED OUT EARLIER, WHILE CLOUD TOPS MAY NOT BE
TOTALLY INDICATIVE OF RAINFALL INTENSITY, IN THIS CASE THEY DO POINT
TO SMALL SCALE SPOT OF GOOD LIFT WITH SOME OVERSHOOTING TOPS DETECTED
IN CORRESPONDING VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO
THIS MESOLOW WILL LEAD TO INTENSE RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2"/HR FOR
PORTIONS OF COLORADO/WASHINGTON/AUSTIN COUNTIES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
30-60 MINUTES. TO THE SOUTH, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FEED NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING CELLS AFFECTING
JACKSON/WHARTON/MATAGORDA COUNTIES. CONCERN STILL EXISTS FOR THIS
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LINE TO HANG UP AND/OR FILL IN, IN RESPONSE TO
DISTURBANCES LOCATED FARTHER TO THE WEST SUCH AS THE ONE MOVING NORTH
OF DEL RIO. CURRENTLY MONITORING SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT FROM AROUND
CORPUS CHRISTI TO EAST OF VICTORIA AS A POSSIBLE SIGN THAT THIS COULD
OCCUR. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM SPOTS APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE LINE (DALLAS AND
CORPUS CHRISTI) SHOW VERY LITTLE SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW SO NEEDLESS TO SAY EVEN IF LINE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE EAST, IT WILL DO SO ONLY VERY SLOWLY.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3227 9577 2774 9574 2769 9789 3227 9781
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