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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/26/07 1240Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1215Z  JS
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LOCATION...NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...THE SOUTHERN END OF VERY SLOW MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION WITH
LOCALLY INTENSE RAIN RATES IS NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME IR SATELLITE
ENHANCEMENT AS WELL.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...DURING THE PAST HOUR HAVE NOTICED RATHER
SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS WITH PORTION OF CONVECTIVE LINE FROM
AROUND CALHOUN/VICTORIA COUNTIES OF FAR SE TX TO MCLENNAN/FALLS COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL TX. SOME OF THE BEST IR ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN WITH CELLS OVER
VICTORIA COUNTY WHERE RECENT OBS FROM VICTORIA (KVCT) SHOW ACTUAL 2"
IN THE PAST HOUR WITH RATES EXCEEDING THAT AT TIMES (CURRENTLY NEARLY
3"/HR). GIVEN THIS CERTAINLY BELIEVE THAT AT LEAST 2"/HR RATES ARE
LIKELY WITH STRONGEST CELLS ALONG THE LINE FARTHER TO THE NORTH INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF MILAM/BELL/FALLS COUNTIES. NORTH OF THERE IR IMAGERY DOESN'T
SHOW THE LINE NEARLY AS WELL BUT SINCE THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR QUITE
SOME TIME NOW IT IS LIKELY THAT WARMER RAIN PROCESSES ARE OCCURRING AND
RATES ARE DEFINITELY HIGHER THAN WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE OBTAINED FROM
STRAIGHT IR CURVE.
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ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION SHOWS DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS ALIGNED
RIGHT ALONG LINE WITH EAST AND SE INFLOW PRESENT. RECENT GPS PW DATA
SHOWS VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.8" ALONG SE TX COAST WITH AT LEAST
1.5"-1.7" NOTED FARTHER INLAND. WATER VAPOR/IR LOOPS BOTH REVEAL SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS TX/OK REGION. THE ORIGINAL SHORTWAVE/UPPER
PORTION OF MCV FROM YESTERDAY'S ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NE ACROSS E
OK INTO W AR. ANOTHER ONE SEEN WITH ROTATION IN CIRRUS DECK WAS MOVING
TO THE NE NOW JUST SOUTH OF ABILINE. THE THIRD ONE ACCOMPANIED BY ACTIVE
CONVECTION WAS MOVING INTO SW TX AROUND DEL RIO AND MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
ENHANCING ACTIVITY FARTHER TO THE EAST FROM VICTORIA TO CENT TX. BELIEVE
THE LATTER 2 MENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE ONES WHICH HAVE MORE OF
A DIRECT INFLUENCE ON THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AFFECTING TX. THE SOUTHERN
ONE COULD BE A KEY IN HOLDING UP THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE WHILE
ALSO INTENSIFYING/FILLING IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER S CENT TO SE TX
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING LEADING TO AN EVEN LARGER AREA OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. THE BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE SE US WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP ACTIVITY OVER TX FROM MOVING
QUICKLY EASTWARD.
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AN ANNOTATED GRAPHIC OF SATELLITE FEATURES SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET ADDRESS BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3305 9695 2775 9595 2752 9718 3285 9820
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