ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/16/07 0607Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0600Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...S OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...FWD...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...#UPPER LEVEL SHEARING OUT...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE
ALL FOR HVY RAINFALL...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CERTAINLY NOT AS ACTIVE OR WITH WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OF PREVIOUS NIGHT.  BUT THESE FACTORS STILL KEEPING HVY RAIN
CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FF THREATS GOING OVERNIGHT...
DEEP MOISTURE S TO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PW VALUES TO 1.7" AND NEAR 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL.  ALSO S/SELY FLOW GIVING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...SHEARING OUT OF COOLER CLOUDS TOPS TO THE TX-OK
BORDER NORTH AND NE HELPING TO KEEP AREA IN CHECK FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
ANY SUBTLE LOW LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL HELP ENHANCE WARM CLOUD TOPS WITH
LOCAL HVY RAINFALL.  AND IF THAT WAS NOT ENOUGH...SOILS UNUSUALLY WET
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND GUIDANCE VALUES LOW...SO ONLY NEED SUBTLE
FORCING FOR HVY RAIN BURSTS AND YOU ARE GETTING HAMILTON/BOSQUE COUNTIES.
POINTS FURTHER NORTH WILL COULD INCREASE IN AMOUNTS BEFORE SEASON STARTS
RAMPING UP...
SEE GRAPHIC ANNOTATION ON WB PAGE IN A FEW MINUTES.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3394 9623 3207 9577 3120 9743 3364 9793
.
NNNN
 
Full Size Graphic


-