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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/25/07 2126Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 2100Z GOES-12 2115Z GG
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LOCATION...NEW MEXICO...
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ATTN WFOS...ABQ...EPZ...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...CBRFC...
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EVENT...MTN THUNDERSTORMS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN QUITE INTERESTING FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER NM.  SHORTWAVE WITHIN POLAR STREAM HAS RAPIDLY
MOVED ACROSS UT/CO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF
THE CLOSED LOW IN WY/MT.  HOWEVER A VERY NARROW POSITIVE TILTED TROF IS
SHEARING OUT ALONG THE FLOW BUT HAS AIDED COOLING ALOFT FOR INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND ENHANCING THE JET DYNAMICS WITH INCREASED GRADIENT.
THE MENTIONED JET IS COUPLED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MAIN 100KT
JET BEHIND THE MAIN US FRONT. THIS IS AIDING UPPERLEVEL OUTFLOW AS WELL
FOR THE CONVECTION PARTICULARLY OVER NE NM WHERE BLOWOFF IS RAPIDLY MOVING
OFF TO THE NE.  HOWEVER...MAX HEATING WITH ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS
CONTINUE TO FOCUS SFC FLOWS TOWARD HIGHER ELEVATION TO DEVELOP CONVECTION
AND MAINTAIN IT ALONG THE PEAKS/RIDGES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH CAN
LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DUE TO NO MOTION. TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD ON
IR BUT THE OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND VERY HARD LOOKING TOPS ON VIS INDICATE
SUPPORTIVE UPDRAFTS FOR GOOD RAINFALL PRODUCTION.  THIS IS MOST EVIDENT
WITH BACKBUILDING/RECYCLING CONVECTION NEAR THE CANTRON/CIBOLA/SOCORRO
COUNTY INTERSECTION ...CENTRAL MORA COUNTY...AND SE CANTRON COUNTY.
RATES OF .75" TO 1.0"/HR CAN BE SUPPORTED BY .5-.6" PWS IN N NM AND
.8-1.0" IN S NM.  THIS HAS LEAD TO AN OVERALL MANUAL IR ESTIMATION OF 2.0"
OVER CENTRAL MORA COUNTY WHERE THE HIGHEST TOTALS HAVE BEEN CALCULATED
SINCE IT IS OF THE LONGEST DURATION.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3692 10367 3302 10689 3303 10893 3690 10704
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