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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/24/07 0205Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0145Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...LARGE MCS CONTINUES AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX....BELIEVE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OF THE BIG BEND REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LARGE BOW SHAPED MCS CONTINUES MAKING
SEWARD PROGRESS AND WAS RECENTLY ANALYZED TO BE FROM THE VIC OF TYR
SW TO NEAR THE AUS AREA AND THEN WEST TO NORTHERN CROCKETT COUNTY.
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO HAVE NOTED PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER LAMPASAS/CORYELL/BELL/BURNET COUNTIES AND WITH THAT HAVE NOTED
THE RECENT 2.17" HOURLY RAINFALL REPORT OUT OF HLR.  ACTIVITY HAS SINCE
DROPPED SE OUT OF THAT AREA BUT STILL VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF OVER 2.0"/HR QUITE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE TOPS FROM
WILLIAMSON TO ROBERTSON COUNTIES.  FURTHER TO THE WEST HAVE NOTED A VERY
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE TOP WITH ASSOCIATED OVERSHOOTING TOP IN THE VIC
OF GILLESPIE COUNTY.  RECENT CLOUD TOP COOLING TO -71C IS OVERSHOOTING
ALL LOCAL AREA RAOBS ELT AND WOULD THINK THAT LOCAL RAINFALL RATES OF
2.0"/HR TO EVEN 3.0"/HR IS QUITE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
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LASTLY, CONVECTION HAS BEEN COOLING AND EXPANDING OVER THE LAST HOUR
FROM N SUTTON COUNTY THROUGH S SCHLEICHER AND INTO N CROCKETT COUNTIES.
TOPS IN THIS AREA HAVE COOLED TO -72C AND WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL RATES IN
THIS VIC TO ALSO BE IN THE 2.0-3.0"/HR RANGE.  WOULD EXPECT THIS AREA TO
BE THE FOCUS FOR EVOLVING HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS BACKED LLJ TRANSPORTING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
JUST NORTH OF THE BIG BEND REGION.  IN ADDITION, 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
IS ORIENTED JUST UPSTREAM OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND THIS WOULD IMPLY
THE THREAT FOR A QUASI-STATIONARY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST UPSTREAM NEAR
ONGOING CONVECTION.  WILL MONITOR THAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT
FOR NOW BELIEVE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE FROM GILLESPIE COUNTY
WNW TO  N CROCKETT.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3176 10188 3163 9977 3105 9834 3113 9677 3028 9733
2988 9909 3037 10168 3108 10245
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