ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/23/07 2245Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 2232Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...MISSOURI...IOWA...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
LOCATION...KANSAS...NEBRASKA...
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ATTN WFOS...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...CONTINUED THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LARGE SCALE LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE REGION WITH AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA SW TO THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE.  THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME APPEARS TO BE OVER CNTRL KS AS
LARGE SCALE WEDGE HAS EMERGED WITH CELLS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND
MERGE INTO THE SW END OF COMPLEX.  NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS WERE NOTED
IN THIS WEDGE FEATURE WITH PERHAPS THE MOST PRONOUNCED ON THE SW EDGE
OF ENHANCED-V FEATURE OVER THE HARVEY/MCPHERSON BORDER.  IN ADDITION,
THERE IS A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FEATURE NEAR THE APEX OF THE WEDGE OVER
N PRATT COUNTY.  HAVE NOTED RECENT RAINFALL REPORTS OUT OF HUT AND
THIS AGREES WITH AUTOMATED AND MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 2-3"/HR
IN THE MOST INTENSE CORES OVER AREAS LOCALLY SATURATED BY CONTINUOUS
TRAINING CONVECTION.  LATEST GOES DPI AND OBJECTIVE SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ANALYSIS (22z) SHOWS A FAVORABLY COUPLED CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY PATTERN UPSTREAM OF CONVECTION FOR CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TRAINING INTO
CNTRL KS.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE WESTERN END OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE IS TRYING TO LIFT N IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
FAR N TX PANHANDLE.  WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TO SEE IF
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FROM N TX INTO CNTRL KS ALSO RESPONDS TO THIS.
IN THE MEANTIME, BELIEVE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD
LIE ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE VIC OF PYX TO MHK TO JUST WEST OF DSM WITH
MOST CONCERNS CENTERED NEAR THE HUT AREA.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4193 9502 4182 9406 4115 9409 3971 9557 3808 9714 3743
9844 3639 9964 3589 10069 3597 10109 3710 10050 4065
9657
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