ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/23/07 1632Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12  1615Z  CK
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LOCATION...KANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...TOP...ICT...DDC...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...NARROW SW-NE BAND OF CNVTN DEVELOPING ALONG SFC FRONT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...A SW-NE LN OF CU/TCU/LOW TOP CB'S
HAS DEVELOPED SINCE 15Z OVER CENTRAL/S CENTRAL KS. THIS LN HAS FORMED
ALONG/INVOF SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT AXES/BOUNDARIES. SFC DATA SHOWS THE LN
HAS FORMED ALONG SFC FRONT..WITH SFC CONVERGENCE MAX FOCUSED OVER THE
AREA. GOES SOUNDER DPI IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEVELOPING CNVTN IS NR
WRN EDGE OF 1"PLUS PW PLUME AND INSTABILITY AXIS WITH LI VALUES OF -5C
AND LOWER. PROFILER DATA SHOWS SWRLY LL JET OF 30-35KTS..RESULTING IN
THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE AREA.
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THUS FAR..GOES SOUNDER DPI CINH IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A CAP IS STILL
IN PLACE. BUT THERE ARE SOME PIXELS OVER SRN KS THAT ARE SHOWING A
DECR IN CINH. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES..MORE DEVELOPMENT OF CNVCTV LN
WILL OCCUR. WITH SWRLY FLOW AT LOW/MID/HIGH LEVELS PER PROFILERS AND
GOES STLT WINDS...WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS LN TO SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOVEMENT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A CELL TRAINING SITUATION ONCE THE CNVTN
STARTS TO INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION TO FACTORS MENTIONED THUS FAR..OF
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATION FOR TONIGHT IS THE APPROACH OF UPPR TROF OVER THE
SW..WITH GOES STLT WIND ANALYSIS SHOWING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPR
JET CURRENTLY OVER ERN CO/N NM. WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPR TROP EXTENDING
FM UPPR LOW OVER NE MT SWWD TO CENTRAL AZ. VORT AND BASE OF TROF ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE E. THUS..WOULD EXPECT UPWARD MOTION TO INCR OVER WRN
HALF OF KS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT..AND FURTHER ENHANCE CNVTN.
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WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ISSUE UPDATED SPENES THIS AFTN AS SITUATION
DEVELOPS. BASED ON LATEST DATA AND TRENDS..INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
CURRENT LN OF CNVTN WILL EVENTUALLY EXPAND SW-NE..ALONG WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING. A GRAPHIC CORRESPONDING WITH THIS CURRENT SPENES WILL BE
AVAILABLE AT THE WEB ADDRESS BELOW IN APPX 5-10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3915 9763 3886 9714 3707 9855 3709 9946
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