ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/23/07 0127Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0115Z   LIDDICK
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LOCATION...CENTRAL KANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...
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EVENT...REDEVELOPING CELLS WITH TRAINING
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...0015Z VIS IMAGERY SHOWING A NICELY
DEFINED OVERSHOOTING TOP IN GRAHM COUNTY IN N CNTRL KS AND MORE DEVELOPING
OVERSHOOTING TOPS JUST TO THE SOUTH IN N TREGO COUNTY.  MANUAL ESTIMATES
OF AROUND 1.0"-1.25" OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS OR SO INVOF TREGO COUNTY WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1.75"-2.0" IN THE SAME TIME FRAME ARE LIKELY IN AREAS
THAT SAW THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS AND CELL TRAINING.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT SWD REDEVLOPMENT IN THE CNTRL/SRN PORTION
OF TREGO COUNTY TOWARDS AN AREA OF BETTER 850MB THETA-E AND THETA-E
ADVECTION.  SHORTER TERM LOOKS MORE LIKELY WITH TRAINING/REDEVLOPMENT
WITH SOME BRIEF RATES UP TO 2.0"/HR INVOF TREGO/ERN ELLIS COUNTY.
LONGER TERM GETS MORE DIFFICULT IN TERMS OF WHETHER THIS MINI COMPLEX
SITS OR MOVES ON AFTER AFTER SOME TIME.  CURRENTLY COMPLEX IS SITTING ON
THE NRN EDGE OF THE DRY LINE RIGHT ALONG A STRONG THETA-E GRADIENT AXIS
WITH GOOD ADVECTION ON THE SRN EDGE.  SOUNDER LI VALUES ARE BETWEEN
-3C AND -5C ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX WITH TD'S IN THE LOWER
60S PER 0Z SFC OBS.  WHILE THE MOISTURE DOES NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE
1.0" IN ERN KS/NERN OK..PROFILE PLOTS SHOWING 30-40 KT S-SSE WINDS
AT 850MB-925MB RESPECTIVELY..SO THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
WITH MANY DIFFERENT FACTORS IN PLACE LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY..WILL
EXPECT THAT THE COMPLEX WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH GRADUAL REDEVELOPMENT TO
THE SE AND SOME LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING RATES UP TO 2.0"/HR GIVEN DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE COMPLEX STALLS AND
REMAINS STATIONARY OVER E CNTRL KS ONCE IT REACHES AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER PW VALUES AND MORE FAVORABLE
THETA-E.

CHECK WEB IN APPROX 10 MIN FOR ATTACHED GRAPHIC.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4048 9977 4006 9832 3916 9889 3879 10017 4004 10044
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