ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/22/07 0340Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0315Z  JS
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LOCATION...SOUTH CENT TO NE NORTH DAKOTA/FAR NW MINNESOTA
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ATTN WFOS...FGF...BIS...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...INTENSIFYING AND CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD POSE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING SEVERE POTENTIAL.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED/EXPANDED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE
OVER CENT ND WITH WARM FRONT BOWED TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NE ND/NW
MN. GOOD CONVERGENCE EXISTS OVER EASTERN ND ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. IN ADDITION MCV
AS SEEN IN COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS AND MENTIONED IN RECENT SWOMCD MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SD/ND BORDER SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE CONVERGENCE
LEADING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF CELL MERGERS WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LINE AS THE MERGERS TAKE PLACE. TRAINING MAY
ALSO BECOME A PROBLEM AS CELLS MOVE FROM SW TO NE CLOSE TO THE TOP OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER E ND/NW MN. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS NOT A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS GOES SOUNDER/GPS DATA SHOWS
1.2-1.3" PW VALUES PRESENT AND SFC OBS INDICATE A BUBBLE OF LOW TO MID 60
DEGREE SFC DEWPOINTS OVER E ND/W MN. RECENT AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES
ARE SHOWING APPROXIMATE 3 HOUR TOTALS IN THE 2.5" TO OVER 3.0" RANGE FOR
AREA AROUND MCHENRY/PIERCE COUNTIES WITH ESTIMATED RATES INCREASING TO AT
LEAST 2"/HR AND POSSIBLY HIGHER NOW FOR THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE
LINE CURRENTLY FROM PIERCE/BENSON TO TOWNER/CAVALIER COUNTIES. ANNOTATED
GRAPHIC OF SATELLITE FEATURES SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
THE ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES OR SO.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4939 9952 4929 9719 4632 9921 4635 10126
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