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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/07/07 0848Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 0815Z	DS
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LOCATION...NW MISSOURI...IOWA...E KANSAS...SE NEBRASKA...
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ATTN WFOS...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON NRN END OF MCS BUT HVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LINEAR MCS STRUCTURE STRETCHES FROM SW
OK TO CENTRAL IA THOUGH THE GOOD NEWS IS NRN END HAS RAPIDLY WARMED
AND IS STARTING TO FALL APART ON IR IMAGERY. SRN HALF OF SQUALL LINE
IN IA..WHICH WAS MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF
1"/HR..HAS DECAYED LEAVING ONLY THE NRN HALF TO RACE OFF THROUGH ERN
IA. COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TO -70C TO -74C AND THESE ARE ONLY
ASSCD WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE..MUCH WARMER THOUGH IN COMPARISON TO
THE -83C CLOUD TOPS SEEN 3 HRS AGO. ESTIMATE THAT ANOTHER .5-1" MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS IA WITH THE MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAINS THAT HAVE FILLED IN
BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND SW
WHERE CONVECTIVE CELLS LINGER. CLOCKWISE ROTATION SEEN ON WV HAS SPUN
UP OUT OF THE NRN PART OF THE MCS CENTERED OVER NW IL NOW AND BELIEVE IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING CELLS IN W MO AS IT WRAPS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
OUT OF THE TN VALLEY.
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SEEMS TO BE A DIFFERENT STORY IN KS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE ONLY WARMED BY A
DEGREE OR TWO SINCE THEIR COLDEST TOPS DURING THE MERGER A FEW HRS AGO
AND ARE NOW -78C TO -80C. LIGHTNING/RADAR DATA CONFIRM IR STLT PICTURE
OF HEAVIEST RAINS ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE MCS WITH SOME MOD STRATIFORM
PRECIP TO THE W THAT HAS EMBEDDED T-STORMS. 0815Z IMAGE HAS JUST SHOWN
SOME RAPID WARMING IN KS LIKELY DUE TO CUTOFF OF MOISTURE FROM CELLS IN
MO MENTIONED ABOVE AND STRENGTHENING CELLS IN OK. CONVECTIVE LINE STILL
PACKS A PUNCH THOUGH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ARE STILL LIKELY IN
NEXT 3 HRS. HYDROESTIMATOR GIVES AMOUNTS OF 3.1" IN S GREENWOOD/ELK
COUNTIES FOR THE 3 HR PERIOD ENDING 08Z. IF CELLS GAIN ENOUGH STRENGTH
IN W MO..POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER MERGER OF CONVECTIVE LINES IN THE 10-13Z
TIMEFRAME. SEE WEB ADDRESS FOR GRAPHIC.

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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4252 9529 4177 9216 3778 9467 3869 9682
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