ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/05/07 0645Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0615Z  JS
.
LOCATION...CENTRAL KANSAS TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
.
ATTN WFOS...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...ABRFC...
.
EVENT...NUMEROUS CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE EXPANSION OF VERY COLD
TOPPED CIRRUS CANOPY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/CONSOLIDATE ESPECIALLY NOW
ACROSS SW TO CENT NEB. SLOW MOVING SUPERCELL LIKELY PRODUCING INTENSE
RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION OVER CENT KS.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...
FOR CENT KS...SUPERCELL MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NNE ACROSS CENT KS HAS
RESULTED IN 1-2 HOUR SATELLITE BASED ESTIMATES IN THE 2-3" RANGE ALONG
ITS PATH FROM STAFFORD INTO BARTON COUNTY. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER (SO FAR
THERE HAS BEEN NO INDICATION THAT IT WON'T) BELIEVE SIMILAR TOTALS COULD
EVENTUALLY OCCUR FOR PORTIONS OF RUSSELL/ELLSWORTH COUNTIES. BEING ON
THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS
THIS SUPERCELL WITH A LONG HISTORY HAS THE FAVORABLE INITIAL DIRECT
ACCESS TO THE LOW LEVEL JET/INFLOW.
.
FOR NEB...IT IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WITH THE LARGE AND EXPANDING CIRRUS CANOPY BUT CERTAINLY GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY(W KS TO E SD) AND LOW LEVEL JET ALONG
WITH THE STRONG DIFFLUENCE AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT
NUMEROUS CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS S
CENT TO CENT NEB. ADDITIONALLY, CELLS MOVING NORTH FROM N CENT KS INTO S
CENT NEB APPEAR TO BE MERGING WITH ACTIVITY WHICH HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED
OVER S CENT NEB. ALSO CELLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING TO THE NE
FROM E COLORADO INTO SW NEB ARE CONVERGING ON THIS REGION AS WELL. IR
CLOUD TOP COVERAGE CERTAINLY ALREADY SUGGESTS MCS FORMATION OVER THIS
REGION AND RADAR TRENDS ARE FOLLOWING RIGHT BEHIND. INITIAL CONCERN FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COULD BE ALONG KS/NEB BORDER WHERE EARLIER EPISODE
OF INTENSE RAINFALL AFFECTED THE NEB COUNTIES FROM AROUND HARLAN TO
WEBSTER. AGAIN, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM IR
LOOP BUT LIGHTNING NETWORK ALONG WITH RADAR COMPOSITE SEEM TO SHOW A
STRONG CELL MOVING TO THE NNE OVER PHILLIPS COUNTY OF N CENT KS WHICH
COULD SOON MOVE INTO HARLAN COUNTY OF S CENT NEB. OTHER SPOT WHICH MAY
BECOME A CONCERN IS THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE WHERE CONVERGING CELLS
COULD MERGE RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH VERY INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 2"/HR...AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE BASED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION
OF THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS BELOW
IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 4230 9878 4060 9786 3839 9827 3838 9919 4116 10142
.
NNNN
 
Full Size Graphic


-