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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/04/07 054Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0345Z  GG
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LOCATION...SW MISSISSIPPI...C/E LOUISIANA...
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ATTN WFOS...JAN...LIX...LCH...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...
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EVENT...RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF MCS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LINEAR MCS BEGINNING TO REORGANIZE AND
INTENSIFY FROM RANKLIN COUNTY MS THROUGH THE VERMILLION BAY REGION
OF CENTRAL LA PARTICULARLY ACROSS SW MS ATTM.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO INCREASING MIDLEVEL FLOW FROM APPROACHING JET BEHIND A TROF THAT
RAPIDLY PUSHED THROUGH E TX (AS SEEN IN WV) SHEARING THE CUTOFF LOW
INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ELONGATION...ADDING GOOD DESTABILIZATION WITH
INCREASED PVA AND CAA ALOFT.  ADDITIONALLY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALSO INCREASED WELL WITH RUC2
ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH VALUES OF DEEP AND SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE MCS...WITH 850 SW AND SLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS CONVERGING
AT THE AREA OF MOST INTENSE COOLING ON IR AROUND WILKENSON COUNTY MS.
PWS ARE RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8" AND TOPS COOLING PAST -70C RATES OF
2-2.5"/HR CAN BE EXPECTED.  TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1.25-1.5" ALONG
THE LINE AS EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS NICE...BUT ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 2"
PARTICULARLY ACROSS E LA WHERE MERGERS APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING LOOKING
A THE OVERSHOOTING TOPS ON IR AND WARM TOPPED DEVELOPING TCU JUST E
NOT BEING OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS SHIELD. SO TOTALS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
TO ECLIPSE FFG VALUES IN THE AREA BUT HIGH INTENSITY OVER VERY SHORT
DURATION WILL LEAD TO FF CONCERNS PARTICULARLY IN URBAN SETTINGS.
PLEASE SEE NEW SATELLITE BASED GRAPHIC AT WEB ADDRESS BELOW...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3258 9095 3250 8898 2867 8998 2945 9260
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