ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/03/07 0345Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0332Z GG
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LOCATION...S AND SE TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MCS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VERY IMPRESSIVE LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS E AND SE ACROSS TX WITH CONTINUED COOLING TOPS PRESENT ALONG
THE FRONT EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHIELD.  THIS IS PARTICULARLY ENHANCED
TO -70 TO -75C OVER ROBERTSON/LEON COUNTIES...GUADELOUPE COUNTY WITH
THE MOST IMPRESSIVE CELL OVER FAR NW LA SALLE COUNTY.  03Z SFC WIND
FIELD SHOWS A BROAD SHIFT OF WINDS BACK TO SELY INTO THE ENTIRE LINE
TRANSPORTING VERY DEEP MOISTURE (1.6 GPS SOUNDERS TO 1.8 GOES SOUNDER)
NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE LINE INTO THE SYSTEM FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY.  WITH TOPS/RATES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WOULD EXPECT RATES
OF 2-2.5"/HR WITH THE COLDEST TOPS IN THE LINE AND 1.5-2.0" WITH THE
WARMER SECTIONS BETWEEN THE OVERSHOOTING TOPS.  3" PLUS CAN BE ESTIMATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STORM OVER FRIO/LASALLE COUNTY WERE THE OVERSHOOTING
TOP IS AT LEAST -70C BUT THE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENT WARMING DUE TO THE TOP
SEEN OVER NE FRIO COUNTY CLEARLY SHOWS THE INCREDIBLE INTENSITY...NOT
TO MENTION THAT IT IS THE SOUTHERN MOST CELL WHICH WOULD BE ABLE TO
ENTRAIN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE S AND SW THAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE
CUT OFF FROM THE OTHERS.  AUTOMATED SATELLITE TOTALS ARE RUNNING AROUND
1.5-2.0" OVER 3HRS BUT ARE CLEARLY MISSING AN ADDITIONAL .5 TO 1" DUE
TO SUBSAMPLED OVERSHOOTING TOPS.   IR SIGNATURE ALSO BEGINNING TO SHOW
THE BROAD DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN REGION BEHIND THE SQUALL
LINE WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE COLD CIRRUS...THIS WILL ADD ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL TOTALS OF .25-.5" AFTER THE COOLEST TOPPED AREAS HAVE
PROGRESSED THROUGH.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3154 9419 2781 9849 2867 9961 3152 9637
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