ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/03/07 0038Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 0015Z	DS
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LOCATION...TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...FRAGMENTED MCS TRYING TO REFORM
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED ON BOTH THE
NRN AND SRN PARTS OF THE MCS FROM EARLIER TODAY. NRN PART HAS TAKEN
ON A NICE BOW SHAPE WITH STRONGEST CORES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND
MULTIPLE OVERSHOOTING TOPS SEEN ON VIS IMAGERY. THESE OVERSHOOTING TOPS
CORRELATE WELL WITH AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL PER RADAR AND ARE SEEN
OVER MCLENNAN/N LIMESTONE..NAVARRO..SE DENTON..AND N COLLIN COUNTIES AS
OF 0015Z IMAGE.
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ON THE SRN END OF THINGS..CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED AND COOLED AND NOW
AT LEAST ON IR IMAGERY FORM A CONTINUOUS LINE STRETCHING FROM NRN TX
TO S CENTRAL TX. NEW CELLS SEEN ON RADAR STREAMING IN FROM THE SE INVOF
HAYS/TRAVIS/WILLIAMSON COUNTIES SUGGESTS THAT THE MCS MAY AGAIN BECOME ONE
SOLID LINE AS IR ALREADY SHOWS. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE NRN SECTION
IS MOVING FASTER THAN THE SRN SECTION SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL
OCCUR OR NOT. IF CELLS DO MERGE TOGETHER INTO ONE SOLID LINE..THERE
WOULD BE VERY HVY RAINFALL LIKELY INVOF KGRK AND KBMQ. CELLS DO NOT
FORM A SOLID LINE S OF GILLESPIE COUNTY THOUGH VIS IMAGERY DOES SHOW TWO
COUNTIES WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS ON STORMS..ONE IN UVALDE THAT HAS LIKELY
HAD A RAIN BURST WITH VERY HIGH RAIN RATES DUE TO ITS INTENSE CLOUD TOP
COOLING AND THE OTHER IN NW BANDERA COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3366 9726 3339 9447 2844 9791 2949 10006
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