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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/02/07 0406Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0345Z GOES-11 0400Z
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LOCATION...SE NEW MEXICO...
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ATTN WFOS...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WITH GOOD HEIGHT FALLS AND VERY IMPRESSIVE PVA OUT AHEAD LEADING
TO ENOUGH FORCING FOR NEW CONVECTION TO BE DEVELOPING FROM SIERRA COUNTY
NM JUST WEST OF EPZ INTO N MEXICO.  SATELLITE DERIVED DIVERGENCE FIELDS
ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 40 UNITS OF DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION
FOR ENHANCING CONVECTIVE GROWTH.  CURRENTLY THE LINE ACROSS S CENTRAL
NM IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT THE LINE WILL BE
QUITE PROGRESSIVE.  HOWEVER...THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SW CHAVES
COUNTY IS OF MORE PRESENT CONCERN.  THE COMPLEX ALSO FALLS AT THE EDGE
OF THE PVA BUT STILL WELL WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT REGION...THIS ALONG WITH
A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL JET STREAK (50KTS PER SAT WINDS) ACROSS W TX ALSO
LEAVING THE COMPLEX IN THE ENTRANCE REGION FOR CONTINUED UL EVACUATION.

CURRENTLY TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD WITH ISOLATED -60C TEMPS BUT MOISTURE IS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE CURRENTLY BEING ESTIMATED BY GOES SOUNDER BETWEEN .9 AND
1.1" BEING NEAR 200 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.  WEAK BUT CONTINUED SELY WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE COMPLEX AS WELL...IN COMBINATION
WITH OTHER PARAMETERS SUPPORTING RATES OF 1-1.5"/HR.  THIS ALONE WOULD
NOT BE CONCERNING BUT THE FACT THAT STORM MOITION VECTORS ARE WEAK WITH
LL VECTORS TOWARD THE NW INTO DOMINATED BY THE 850MB FLOW TOWARD THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL VECTORS CANCELING OUT WITH WEAK EASTWARD
MOVEMENT AT 5-10KTS HAS LEAD TO 1.5HR ESTIMATES OF 1.5" IN NW EDDY COUNTY
WHICH ECLIPSES FFG VALUES.

ELSEWHERE IN NM...CONVECTION FROM NW NM TO CENTRAL NM IS MOISTURE STARVED
BUT TRAINING OF CELLS ALONG THE NNW TRACK COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL
FLOODING CONCERNS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES PARTICULARLY ALONG RUGGED
TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  PLEASE SEE NEW SATELLITE GRAPHIC AT
WEB ADDRESS BELOW...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3406 10328 3214 10320 3208 10652 3350 10714
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