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Risk of Seasonal Climate Extremes in the US Related to ENSO
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Extremes of temperature and precipitation can occur at any time. However,
it can be shown that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation has a relationship to the
relative frequency of these climate extremes in the United
States. To see which regions of the US have an increased risk of extreme warm/cold (or dry/wet) during an ENSO event, select from the options below. Note that
this increased risk varies not only by region but also by season and ENSO lag.
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How to interpret plots and method details. Important: These plots show regions where the risk of having a seasonal extreme is high. If you would like average values of temperature and precipitation during El Niño/La Niña, you should look at composite plots.
Select type of event, temperature or precipitation and season to show the relative risk of climate extremes based on concurrent value of the ENSO index for the continental United States:
The plots show the odds of a wet/dry or warm/cold season with ENSO conditions preceding the season. ENSO conditions are defined from the SOI index. The lead time is 3 seasons to concurrent. Results are based on the US climate division dasaset for 1896-1995. Extreme is defined as being in the highest or lowest 20% of the 100 year record. ENSO is defined as the top 20 SOI years (La Nina) and the lowest 20 SOI years (El Nino). Four extreme events would be expected by chance. A decrease number of years to zero or one year would be significant at the 99.3% and 95.7% level, respectively. An increase to seven, eight or nine years would be significant at the 95.4%, 98.6% and 99.9% levels. Actual significance is probably less due to the number of tests run and time/space correlations in the dataset.Reference
Wolter, K., R. M. Dole, and C. A. Smith, 1999: Short-Term Climate Extremes over the Continental United States and ENSO. Part I: Seasonal Temperatures. J. Climate, 12, 3255-3272.
Odds of Extreme Seasonal Temperature Anomalies w/ENSO preceding season
Defintion of Regions
| Region | El Nino | La Nina |
|---|---|---|
| Pacific NW | Get plot | Get Plot |
| Western Washington | Get Plot | Get Plot |
| Southeast | Get Plot | Get Plot |
| Rocky Mountain Frontrange | Get Plot | Get Plot |
| Gulfcoast | Get Plot | Get Plot |
| Texas/Oklahoma | Get Plot | Get Plot |
| Highplains | Get Plot | Get Plot |
Odds of Extreme Seasonal Precipitation Anomalies with ENSO conditions preceding
Defintion of Regions
| Region | El Nino | La Nina |
|---|---|---|
| Pacific NW | Get plot | Get Plot |
| Western Washington | Get Plot | Get Plot |
| Southeast US | Get Plot | Get Plot |
| Rocky Mountain Frontrange | Get Plot | Get Plot |
| Gulfcoast | Get Plot | Get Plot |
| Texas/Oklahoma | Get Plot | Get Plot |
| Highplains | Get Plot | Get Plot |
| SE New Mexico | Get Plot | Get Plot |
Precipitation extremes for El Nino, South Platte Climate division
Precipitation extremes for La Nina, South Platte Climate division
Current ENSO State
- Plot of recent Southern Oscillation Index values (from CPC)
- Table of most recent Southern Oscillation Index values (from CPC)
- History of the Southern Oscillation Index
Method Details
Years that are El Niño/La Niña extremesDetails of calculations
This page is based on work-in-progress by Randy Dole, Klaus Wolter and Cathy Smith of the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division. You can use these plots in publications though we ask that you acknowledge the Physical Sciences Division in the publication. For example, "Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder Colorado from their Web site at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/".
Related Web Pages:
| US Precipitation/Temperature plotting page |
| ENSO Climate Risks Poster from PSD |
| El Niño Theme Page from PMEL(NOAA) |
References:
Any comments, suggestions or questions on this page are welcome and can be sent to cathy.smith@noaa.gov