Oil Spill Modeling Program
The MMS assesses oil-spill risks associated with offshore energy activities off the
U.S. continental coast and Alaska calculating spill trajectories and contact
probabilities. These analyses address the likelihood of spill occurrences, the transport
and fate of any spilled oil, and the environmental impacts that might occur as a result of
the spill. The MMS Oil-Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) model combines the probability of spill
occurrence with a statistical description of hypothetical oil-spill movement on the ocean
surface.
Modeling results are used by MMS NEPA staff for environmental documents, other federal
and state agencies for review of environmental impact statements, environmental
assessments, endangered species consultations, and oil industry specialists preparing the
oil spill response plans (OSRP).
Paths of hypothetical oil spills are based on hindcasts (history) of winds, ocean
currents, and ice in Arctic waters, using the best available input environmental
information. Output of the model include tables of probable contact and GIS (Geographic
Information System) representations of these probabilities, with and without the
probability of occurrence of one or more spills.
The MMS is committed to the continuous improvement of OSRA estimations and EIS
analysis, and use the results of new field and modeling studies to fulfill that
commitment. As offshore activity expands into deeper waters and new geographic areas, MMS
oil-spill modeling will be applied to risk assessments and validated with environmental
observations.
For information pertaining to operational safety, pollution prevention, oil spill
response, and cleanup capabilities, visit our Technology
Assessment and Research (TA&R) Program. The TA&R Program is a research element
encompassed by the MMS Regulatory Program. It was established in the 1970's to ensure that
industry operations on the Outer Continental Shelf incorporated the use of the Best
Available and Safest Technologies (BAST) subsequently required through the 1978
OSCLA amendments.
