Marine Weather Discussion

000
AGXX40 KNHC 140751
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF YESTERDAY IS NOW SE OF 
THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE GULF AS HIGH 
PRES BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BUOY AND ASCAT 
DATA SHOW WINDS TO 20 KT OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF. AN 
ASCAT PASS FROM 04Z INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT STILL IN EFFECT OVER 
THE FAR SW GULF WATERS IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT 
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. BUOY DATA 
AND A JASON ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEA HEIGHTS UP TO 12 FT IN THE 
SW GULF IN DECAYING NORTHERLY SWELL. OTHERWISE SEAS ARE 
GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 FT AREA WIDE. WINDS INCREASE ON THU FROM 
NORTH TO SOUTH AS A REINFORCING FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. 
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1040 MB BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FRI 
BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE 
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AGAIN SAT INTO 
SUN AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT NOTED ON QUIKSCAT OFF THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE LIKELY AT LEAST 12 FT IN THIS AREA 
BASED ON 10 FT REGISTERING AT BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. 
WINDS AT BUOY 42056 ARE ONLY 10 KT CURRENTLY...BUT NORTHERLY 
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM CUBA TO BELIZE THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH 
PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER 
FRI AND SAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM CUBA TO HONDURAS AS 
STRONGER HIGH PRES REINFORCES TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC 
WEAKENS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES CROSSES THROUGH THE LESSER 
ANTILLES BY SAT. WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN BY 
SUN AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS N OF PUERTO RICO AND HIGH PRES OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS.

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG 
SW FLOW IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N IN AN ASCAT PASS 
AND PER BUOY 44004. ASCAT ALSO SHOWS 20 KT TRADES N OF 
HISPANIOLA. SEAS TO 10 FT ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN 
NORTHERLY SWELL. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST BUT THEN STALL 
FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE TODAY. REINFORCING 
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THU INTO FRI...ALLOWING 
THE FRONT VERY SLOW EAST PROGRESS...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG 
NW TO N FLOW FRI INTO SAT. WAVEWATCH IS HINTING OF SEAS IN 
EXCESS OF 13 FT PUSHING INTO THE BAHAMAS IN N TO NE SWELL BY 
EARLY SAT...MIXING WITH EAST SWELL TO 12 FT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 
THE WINDS DIMINISHING SUBSTANTIALLY SAT INTO SUN...AS AN 
INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS IS 
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE HIGH PRES OVER THE U.S. WEAKENS 
AS IT MOVES INTO WATERS OFF N FLORIDA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE 
ADVANCING TROUGH...THE GRADIENT MAY STAY A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN 
INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THUS WILL HOLD ONTO FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC...
NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.