DevCan - Probability of Developing or Dying of Cancer
Statistical models are used to compute the probability of developing
and dying of cancer from birth or conditional on a certain age.
DevCan takes cross-sectional counts of incident cases from the
standard areas of the Surveillance,
Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program conducted by the
National Cancer Institute, and mortality counts for the same areas
from data collected by the National
Center for Health Statistics, and uses them to calculate incidence
and mortality rates using population estimates from census data
for these areas. These rates are converted to the probabilities
of developing or dying from cancer for a hypothetical population.
Please note that when the program refers to cancer or incidence,
it is referring only to the cancer site that you requested.
DevCan 6.3.1
is the current version of the software (released August 2008).
It supports rate editing, sensitivity analysis, user-defined databases,
confidence intervals, and the ability to get risk estimates from
any age to any age. All revisions made for the current release
of the software are listed in readme.txt.
The methods section
provides information about the methods used in DevCan including
a comparison to methods used in previous versions.
This version of DevCan includes the following two incidence databases
with matching US mortality data, and a US mortality database
for calculating probability of dying:
- SEER
17 incidence database for 2000-2005 with follow-back to
1995 with Kaposi Sarcoma and Mesothelioma classified as individual
sites. This database includes detailed racial and ethnic data
- SEER
9 incidence database for 2000-2005 with follow-back to
1975 with Kaposi Sarcoma and Mesothelioma classified as individual
sites.
- Total US mortality data for 2000-2005 with Kaposi Sarcoma
and Mesothelioma classified as individual sites. This database includes detailed racial and ethnic data
Additional Devcan databases are available as downloadable
Devcan databases.
Statistics related to lifetime risks are available from a variety
of sources and there are several tools available for finding
or calculating statistics. For help finding the right tool, see What
research tool should I use? or choose a method from the list
below.
- SEER Cancer Statistics
Review, 1975-2005 includes Lifetime
Risk Tables (PDF), by cancer site, showing the probability (expressed
as a percent) of a person of a specified race, sex, and age
(0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, or 60) being diagnosed with the specified
cancer within the next 10, 20, or 30 years or within their
remaining lifetime.
- Fast Stats links
to tables, charts, and graphs of cancer statistics for all major
cancer sites by age, sex, race, and geographic area. Select "Probability
of Developing or Dying of Cancer" as the statistic type.
- Cancer
Query System: Probability of Developing or Dying of Cancer provides
access to a database of pre-calculated statistics; this allows
you to view these statistics without downloading and installing
DevCan. The DevCan software provides greater flexibility than
this online database, including the ability to analyze your
own cancer data.
- DevCan is
PC-based statistical software used to calculate the lifetime
risks of being diagnosed with or dying of cancer.
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