Topic:
Accomplishments and Plans
Milestones

FY:
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
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CDC FY2001 Plans and Milestones

GOAL: IMPLEMENT SEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL CLIMATE FORECASTS

OBJECTIVE 1: Implement prediction systems

o Performance Measure: Expand the cababilities and usefulness of NOAA climate services by implementing new climate forecast products

o Q1 Milestone: Implement and evaluate the skill of experimental statistical forecasts which use subseasonal variations in tropical outgoing long-wave radiation to forecast precipitation at a range of 8-14 days over the western United States. (CDC, J. Whitaker)

Status: Completed -- see full report.

o Q2 Milestone: Implement experimental two-to-six week forecasts using a new empirical-dynamical model, compare the skill of this model with that of current NOAA climate forecast models, and make the results available in real-time on the World Wide Web. (CDC, M. Newman)

Status: Completed -- see full report.

OBJECTIVE 2: Maintain and improve observing and data delivery systems

o Performance Measure: Respond to customer demand by increasing the number of operational and research data sets updated, developed, produced, and delivered

o Q4 Milestone: Create at least two new suites of Web documents describing CDC research and its implications, with one suite using language appropriate for the general public and the other addressing needs of the climate research community. (CDC, J. Collins, D. Mock)

Status: Completed -- see full report.

OBJECTIVE 3: Conduct research for improved climate predictions

o Performance Measure: Improve understanding of atmospheric, oceanic, land surface and cryospheric processes that contribute to climate variability, as measured by peer-reviewed publications from NOAA supported research programs

o Q3 Milestone: Convene a CLIVAR-Atlantic Workshop at CDC and report on significant new research results on atmosphere-ocean interactions. (CDC, M. Hoerling)

Status: Completed -- see full report.

o Q4 Milestone: Complete a report on seasonal predictability of temperature and precipitation based on results derived from climate models used by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction. (CDC, M. Hoerling)

Status: Completed -- see full report.

o Performance Measure: Improve NOAA coupled-model capabilities to simulate seasonal-to-interannual climate variability as measured through decreases in model errors

o Q4 Milestone: Calculate the radiative feedbacks of water vapor and clouds using ERBE observations and CCM3 simulations for the ERBE period. Identify possible causes for the discrepancies between observations and coupled model simulations and assess whether these discrepancies can account for the bias in the equatorial SST in the coupled model simulations. (CDC, D. Sun)

Status: Completed -- see full report.

OBJECTIVE 4: Deliver services and assess socio-economic impacts

o Performance Measure: Assess the socio-economic impacts of seasonal-to-interannual climate variability through reports on regional or sector-based analyses

o Q2 Milestone: Conduct and report on results of a special session at the AGU Fall 2000 meeting on regional trans-boundary water management issues. Topics will include: impacts of changes in the water cycle in the context of human intervention, relationships between climate, water quality, and aquatic ecosystems, societal aspects of water resource management, and trans-boundary regional water management strategies and case studies, especially those that help place climate-forced changes in regional water supplies in a societal context. (CDC, H. Diaz)

Status: Completed -- see full report.

GOAL: DOCUMENT, PREDICT, AND ASSESS DECADAL-TO-CENTENNIAL CHANGE

OBJECTIVE 3: Conduct research for improved climate predictions

o Performance Measure: Results of 90% of the research activities are to be cited in the year-2001 Third Assessment of Climate Change

o Q4 Milestone: Complete an update of the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set covering approximately 1800-1949, including a blend with the UK Main Marine Data Bank and other newly available sources. This update will substantially lengthen the period of record (presently 1854-1997), and make available the entire archive in uniform formats. (CDC, S. Woodruff)

Status: Completed -- see full report.