Population Estimates Used in NCI's SEER*Stat Software
The county population estimates implemented in the NCI SEER*Stat software for the calculation of cancer incidence and mortality rates are available for download (see Download US Population Data). They represent a modification of the Vintage 2007 annual time series of July 1 county population estimates by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin produced by the US Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program, in collaboration with the National Center for Health Statistics, and with support from the NCI through an interagency agreement.
The population estimates incorporate new Vintage 2007 bridged single-race estimates for July 1, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006 that are derived from the original multiple race categories in the 2000 Census (as specified in the 1997 Office of Management and Budget standards for the collection of data on race and ethnicity). The bridged single-race estimates and a description of the methodology used to develop them appear on the National Center for Health Statistics Web site.
A modification that the NCI has made to the Census Bureau estimates only affects population estimates for the state of Hawaii. Based on concerns that the native Hawaiian population has been vastly undercounted in previous censuses, the Epidemiology Program of the Hawaii Cancer Research Center has recommended an adjustment to the populations for their state. The "Hawaii-adjustment" to the Census Bureau’s estimates has the net result of reducing the estimated white population and increasing the estimated Asian and Pacific Islander population for the state. The estimates for the total population, black population, and American Indian and Alaska Native populations in Hawaii are not modified.
Two sets of population estimates are available for 2005: the standard set based on July 1 populations and a set that has been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina (August 29) and Rita (September 24). For 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas, the Census Bureau has provided total population estimates for January 1, 2006 (see Special Processing Procedures for the Areas Affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita) and estimates by age, sex, and race category for July 1 2006 (see Special Population Estimates for Impacted Counties in the Gulf Coast Area). These data sets were used to develop time-weighted average populations for the 62 counties/parishes in 2005. These estimates are lower than the July 1, 2005 values for counties/parishes that had direct hurricane impact and higher for counties/parishes that were destinations for the people displaced by the hurricanes.
The Census Bureau revised their population estimation methodology this year (see Methodology for the United States Resident Population (PDF)). This revision only impacts population estimates for 2000 forward. The Census Bureau believes their new estimation method represents an improvement over their previous procedures and results in more accurate population estimates. The net impact of the various methodological changes is a downward shift of the current (Vintage 2007) series of postcensal population estimates when compared to those from last year’s (Vintage 2006) series. A downward shift in the net international migration estimates accounts for most of the change in this year’s series of estimates.
A modification was also made to the 1969-1989 Census Bureau estimates in order to meet requirements for age-adjustment according to the year 2000 US standard population. The methodology used to develop population estimates for two new age groups (less than one year-olds and one to four year-olds) for the 1969-1989 estimates is described below.
1990-2006 NCI SEER*Stat Population Estimates
A set of July 1, 2000-2006 bridged single-race population estimates were obtained by NCI from the Census Bureau through an interagency agreement. Previous annual estimates, back to and including the year 2000, were revised. This is because the Census Bureau, in addition to developing estimates for a new year, routinely revises the estimates for prior years back through the Census base year. This file contains populations by year, county, race, Hispanic origin, sex and age. The race groups included in the Census estimates are White, Black, American Indian/Eskimo/Aleut and Asian/Pacific Islander. The age groups consisted of the following 86 categories: <1, 1, 2, 3, …84, and 85+. These estimates were used along with the 1990-99 estimates previously obtained from the Census Bureau. The methodology implemented by the Census Bureau to develop these county estimates is described on the Census Bureau's web site.
The following steps were taken to create the 2000-2006 population records:
- One record was created by year, county, race, Hispanic origin, and sex with 86 variables containing the age-specific populations
- Census Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) county codes were collapsed to match the county list that is used by the NCI (Appendix 1).
- Adjustments to the
Census Bureau’s populations for the state
of Hawaii were made using the 2000 Census SF1 file. The proportion
of the White Alone population estimate to the total population was calculated
for the SF1 data for 2000-2006 by year, county, sex and age. The
proportion was applied to the total population from the Census Bureau
to produce the Hawaii-adjusted White population. Additional racial/ethnic
populations for Hawaii were developed in the following manner:
- Hispanic White = Hawaii-adjusted White X (Census Hispanic White/Census White)
- Non-Hispanic White = Hawaii-adjusted White - New Hispanic White
- Hispanic Nonwhite = (Census Total - Hawaii-adjusted White) X (Census Hispanic Nonwhite/Census Nonwhite)
- Non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander = Hawaii-adjusted Hispanic Nonwhite - (Census Non-Hispanic Black + Census Non-Hispanic American Indian/Eskimo/Aleut)
- Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander = Census Total - (Hawaii-adjusted White + Census Black + Census American Indian/Eskimo/Aleut + Hawaii adjusted Non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander)
- The adjusted Hawaii data were merged with the other county level data.
- The individual age populations were summed into the 19 age groups.
- One record was created by year, county, race, Hispanic origin, sex and age group.
The 2000-2006 estimates received from the Census Bureau included population estimates for Broomfield county in Colorado, which was created in November, 2001 from parts of Adams, Boulder, Jefferson, and Weld counties. To be consistent with the way numerator data are reported (i.e., mortality and incidence) in 2000 and 2001, however, we derived estimates for the original four Colorado counties (Adams, Boulder, Jefferson and Weld) that existed prior to the creation of Broomfield county. An earlier series of Census Bureau estimates that did not include Broomfield county were used to derive the 2000 and 2001 estimates. The following steps were taken:
- One record was created from the 2000-2006 data for 2000 and 2001 by year, race, Hispanic origin, age and sex with variables containing the total population for Adams, Boulder, Broomfield, Jefferson, and Weld counties.
- One record was created from the older 2000-2001 data by race, Hispanic origin, age and sex with variables containing the populations for the individual and sum of the counties for Adams, Boulder, Jefferson and Weld counties. Proportions were calculated for each of the 4 counties to the total of the 4 counties by race, Hispanic origin, age, and sex.
- The proportions calculated above for each of the 4 counties were applied to the current total population estimates for the 5 counties in 2000-2001.
- One record was created by year, county, race, Hispanic origin, sex and age.
- Single year of age records were summed over to get the 19 age groups.
- The population estimates received from Census for the 5 counties were replaced by the 4 county derived estimates.
The following steps were taken to adjust the 2005 populations for hurricanes Katrina and Rita:
- For each to the 62 affected counties and parishes, a daily population estimate was created. For the days prior to the hurricane landfall (August 29 for Katrina and September 24 for Rita), a linear model was used based on the July 1, 2004 and July 1, 2005 population estimates.
- For the days after the hurricane, we developed an estimate of the January 1, 2006 population by age, sex, and race category. This estimate was generated by applying a county/parish-wide adjustment based on the January 1, 2006 population estimates to the detailed July 1, 2006 population estimates by age, sex, and race category.
- For the overall 2005 population, we summed the daily estimates and divided by the number of days.
- For population denominators with cancer data, it is usually assumed that the address at diagnosis is the individual’s permanent address. By using the January 1, 2006 population estimates for all of the post-hurricane period, we assume that the current address was used for people who could not return home by January 1, 2006.
- Since these adjustments were made for just 62 counties, the resulting total US population is lower than the July 1 total US population. The difference represents people displaced by the hurricanes who went to other parts of the US. A separate dummy state has been introduced that represents these people. It is labeled ” Hurricane Katrina/Rita Evacuees - Populations Only - 2005” and is included by default in rate calculations over the total US.
- One record was created by year, county, race, Hispanic origin, and sex with 19 variables containing the age-specific populations.
- Census Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) county codes were collapsed to match the county list that is used by the NCI (Appendix 1).
- Adjustments to the Census Bureau's populations for the state of Hawaii were made in collaboration with investigators at the Hawaii Cancer Research Center using population data they provided. The proportion of the White population estimate to the total (all racial/ethnic groups combined) population was calculated from the Hawaii Cancer Research Center's populations for 1990-99 by year, sex, and age group. The proportion was applied to the total (all racial/ethnic groups combined) population estimate from the Census Bureau to produce the Hawaii-adjusted White population. Additional race/ethnic populations for Hawaii were developed the same as described above in 2000-05.
- The adjusted Hawaii data were merged with the other county level data.
- One record was created by year, county, race, Hispanic origin, sex and age group.
- The Woods & Poole single year of age populations for zero to four year olds were used by year (1970-1989), state/county, race (White, Black, Other) and sex (male, female). To be consistent with the county codes used by the NCI (Appendix 1), various counties available in the Woods & Poole data needed to be combined or recoded (Appendix 2). There were also several counties, mainly in Virginia, that are not combined in the NCI data that are combined in the Woods & Poole data. For these NCI counties, the combined county Woods & Pool data was used for each of the individual NCI counties (Appendix 3).
- The proportion of less than one year-olds in the zero to four year-old age group was calculated by year, state/county, race (White, Black, Other) and sex from the Woods & Poole data.
- Using the current 1969-1989 population NCI estimates, estimates for 'Other' race were calculated by subtracting the Black estimates from the Nonwhite by year, state/county and sex. The Nonwhite estimates were dropped at this point leaving races White, Black and Other.
- The proportions from the Woods & Poole data were applied to the zero to four year-old age group by year, state/county, race (White, Black, Other) and sex. The proportions for 1970 were used for 1969. Populations for the one to four year-old age groups were calculated by subtracting the new less than one year-old populations from the zero to four year-old populations.
- Populations for Nonwhite were create by summing the estimates for Blacks and Other by years, state/county, age group (<1, 1-4) and sex. The populations for Other race were dropped at this point.
- Populations for the two new age groups (<1, 1-4) were merged with the 1969-1989 population data. The zero to four year-old age group was dropped.
The following steps were taken to create the 1990-1999 population records:
1969-1989 NCI SEER*Stat Population Estimates
The July 1, 1969-1989 population estimates were taken from the NCI standard 200 format files (i.e., the same population estimates which have been available through SEER*Stat). These population estimates were already modified according to the Hawaii Cancer Research Center data. The methodology for developing the 1969-1989 Hawaii population estimates was comparable to that described in the previous section for the 1990-1999 population estimates.
Single year of age population estimates were obtained from a private vendor (Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., 2001 Regional Database, Copyright January 2001; estimated July 1 population by race, sex and single year of age based on 1990 Census and post-censal Census Bureau estimates). The following steps were taken to create the <1 and 1-4 year old age groups for the SEER*Stat population estimates:
Appendix 1. Listing of counties combined/recoded in the 1969-2006 NCI population data.
| State | Years | NCI County | FIPS County Code |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 1969-1989 | 900 | All Counties |
| Alaska | 1990-1993 | 010 | 013 Aleutians East Borough 016 Aleutians West Borough |
| Alaska | 1990-1993 | 910 | 070 Dillingham Census Area 164 Lake and Peninsula Borough |
| Alaska | 1990-1993 | 231 | 232 Skagway-Hoonan-Angoon Census Area 282 Yakutat City and Borough |
| Arizona | 1990-1993 | 910 | 012 La Paz County |
| Hawaii | 1969-1999 | 900 | All Counties |
| Montana | All | 031 | 031 Gallatin 113 Yellowstone National Park |
| New Mexico | 1969-1981 | 910 | 006 Cibola County 061 Valencia County |
| New York | 1969-1979 | 910 | 005 Bronx County 047 Kings County 061 New York County 081 Queens County 085 Richmond County |
| Virginia | 1969-1981 | 910 | 153 Prince William County 683 Manassas City 685 Manassas Park City |
| 1969-1981 | 911 | 095 James City County 199 York County 735 Poquoson City 830 Williamsburg City |
|
| 1969-1979 | 913 | 089 Henry County 690 Martinsville City |
|
| 1969-1979 | 914 | 165 Rockingham County 660 Harrisonburg City |
|
| 1969-1979 | 915 | 177 Spotsylvania County 179 Stafford County 630 Fredericksburg City |
|
| 1980+ | 005 | 005 Alleghany County 560 Clifton Forge City |
|
| 1969-1979 | 916 | 005 Alleghany County 560 Clifton Forge City 580 Covington City |
|
| 1969-1979 | 917 | 019 Bedford County 515 Bedford City |
|
| 1969-1979 | 918 | 013 Arlington County 059 Fairfax County 510 Alexandria City 600 Fairfax City 610 Falls Church City |
|
| All | 083 | 083 Halifax County 780 South Boston City |
| State | Years | NCI County | FIPS County Code | Florida | 1969-1989 | 086 | 025 Miami Dade County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 1969-2001 | 911 | 001 Adams County |
| Colorado | 1969-2001 | 912 | 013 Boulder County |
| Colorado | 1969-2001 | 913 | 059 Jefferson County |
| Colorado | 1969-2001 | 914 | 123 Weld |
| Missouri | 1969-1979 | 186 | 193 St Genevieve County |
Appendix 2. Listing of Woods & Poole counties combined/recoded to match NCI county codes.
| State | Woods & Poole | NCI County Code | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 5+47+61+81+85 (1970-79 Only) |
910 | Bronx County + Kings County + New York
County + Queens County + Richmond County |
| Virginia | 931+958 (1970-81 Only) |
911 | James City County + York County + Poquoson City + Williamsburg City |
| 179+951 (1970-79 Only) |
915 | Spotsylvania County + Stafford County + Fredericksburg City | |
| 919+13+510 (1970-79 Only) |
918 | Arlington County + Fairfax County +
Alexandria City + Fairfax City + Falls Church City |
|
| State | Woods & Poole | NCI County Code |
|---|---|---|
Alaska |
000 |
900 All Counties |
Arizona |
027 |
910 La Paz County + Yuma County |
Appendix 3. Listing of counties that
are collapsed in the Woods & Poole population data.
The data for these combined counties were output once for each of the individual NCI county codes.
| State | Woods & Poole | NCI County Code |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 061 | 006 Cibola County 061 Valencia County |
| Virginia | 179 | 179 Stafford (1980-89 only) 915 Spotsylvania County + Stafford County + Fredericksburg City (1969-79) |
| 901 | 003 Albemarle County 540 Charlottesville City |
|
| 903 | 005 Alleghany County with Clifton Forge
City (1980-89 only) 580 Covington City (1980-89 only) 916 Alleghany County with Clifton Forge City + Covington City (1969-79 only) |
|
| 907 | 015 Augusta County 790 Staunton City 820 Waynesboro City |
|
| 909 | 019 Bedford County (1980-89 only) 515 Bedford City (1980-89 only) 917 Bedford County + Bedford City (1969-79 only) |
|
| 911 | 031 Campbell County 680 Lynchburg City |
|
| 913 | 035 Carroll County 640 Galax City |
|
| 918 | 053 Dinwiddie County 570 Colonial Heights City 730 Petersburg City |
|
| 919 | 059 Fairfax County (1980-89 only) 600 Fairfax City (1980-89 only) 610 Falls Church City (1980-89 only) 918 Arlington County + Fairfax County + Alexandria City + Fairfax City + Falls Church City (1969-79 only) |
|
| 921 | 069 Frederick County 840 Winchester City |
|
| 923 | 081 Greensville County 595 Emporia City |
|
| 929 | 089 Henry County (1980-89 only) 690 Martinsville City (1980-89 only) 913 Henry County + Martinsville City (1969-79 only) |
|
| 931 | 095 James City County (1982-89 only) 830 Williamsburg City (1982-89 only) 911 James City County + York County + Poquoson City + Williamsburg City (1969-1981) |
|
| 933 | 121 Montgomery County 750 Radford City |
|
| 939 | 143 Pittsylvania County 590 Danville City |
|
| 941 | 149 Prince George County 670 Hopewell City |
|
| 942 | 153 Prince William County (1982-89
only) 683 Manassas City (1982-89 only) 685 Manassas Park City (1982-89 only) 910 Prince William County + Manassas City + Manassas Park City (1970-81 only) |
|
| 944 | 161 Roanoke County 775 Salem City |
|
| 945 | 163 Rockbridge County 530 Buena Vista City 678 Lexington City |
|
| 947 | 165 Rockingham County (1980-89 only) 660 Harrisonburg City (1980-89 only) 914 Rockingham County + Harrisonburg City (1969-79) |
|
| 949 | 175 Southampton County 620 Franklin City |
|
| 951 | 177 Spotsylvania County (1980-89 only) 630 Fredericksburg City (1980-89 only) 915 Spotsylvania County + Stafford County + Fredericksburg City (1969-79) |
|
| 953 | 191 Washington County 520 Bristol City |
|
| 955 | 195 Wise County 720 Norton City |
|
| 958 | 199 York County (1982-89 only) 735 Poquoson City (1982-89 only) 911 James City County + York County + Poquoson City + Williamsburg City (1970-1981) |
|
| Wisconsin | 901 | 078 Menominee County 115 Shawano County |
