ABSTRACT:                                                                                

 "In this presentation I will discuss some recent activities at the CHC          
which have some relationship to  interests/projects at the NHC. Specifically, I will discuss the  use of the "post-tropical" terminology in the Canadian  forecast bulletins; storm surge forecasting/warnings during tropical events; and track-relative forecast error  distributions.  Finally I will summarize the most recent work on experimental probabilistic wind swath forecast graphics, which entail the blending storm-only wind swaths with dynamical ensemble-based wind probability fields.

"Advances In Tropical Cyclone Track Uncertainty Guidance: Understanding Why Uncertainty         Looks the Way It Does".  Presented September 17th, 2008 by Dr. Jim             Hansen, Naval Research Laboratory ,Monterey, CA. NHC Seminar Room
Audio file for  "Advances in Tropical Cyclone Track Uncertainty Guidance: Understanding Why Uncertainty Looks the Way It Does".  RT: ~1:15

"The CIRA and CIMSS AMSU Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analyses: How Accurate Are They? presented August 7, 2008 by Corey Walton, SCEP Student Intern at NHC 


"The Atlantic Ocean Thermohaline Circulation (THC) and Its Dominant Influence on Atlantic Major  Hurricane"
William M. Gray, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO  presented at the National Hurricane  Center  July, 2008   

 ABSTRACT:
"The Atlantic undergoes large multi-decadal variations in major hurricane frequency.  These changes are important because it has been extablished that major hurricanes (~20 percent of named  storms) account for about 80-85  percent of the US's normalized (population, inflation, wealth) hurricane  destruction.  These multi-decadal changes in major hurricane activity are hypothesized to reslt from multi-decadal variations in Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC) or the AMO as it is sometimes referred to.  This oscillatiion is hypothesized to be primarily driven by Atlantic salinity variations - the so called salt oscilation.  It will be shown how Atlantic SSTs, SLPAs, trade winds and 200 mb zonal winds, and Atlantic surface salinity patterns respond in a systematic manner to these THC variations.  The large increase in Atlantic basin major hurricane frequency of the last 13 years is due to the THC becoming much stronger than it was during the period of 1970-1994.  This increase should not be intepreted as having anything to do with atmospheric CO2 increases."                

Ideas for Improving Hurricane Forecasts" power point presentation by Dr. Alexander "Sandy" MacDonald, Deputy Assistant Administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) and Director, OAR's Earth Systems Research Lab (ESRL)  given June 19, 2008 at the National Hurricane Center and Atlantic Oceonographic and Meteorological Lab Library.

"Hurricane  Primer" by Neal Dorst, HRD AOML