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Numbers in the text and tables of this report may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise indicated, all years referred to in Chapter 4 are calendar years, and all years in other chapters and the appendixes. are fiscal years |
This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis of the President's budget request for fiscal year 2001 was prepared at the request of the Senate Committee on Appropriations. It was produced by the staffs of CBO's Budget Analysis, Macroeconomic Analysis, and Tax Analysis divisions under the supervision of Robert Sunshine, Robert Dennis, and Thomas Woodward. The baseline revenue estimates were prepared by CBO; the estimates of the President's revenue proposals were prepared by the Joint Committee on Taxation.
Jeff Holland wrote the summary; he also wrote portions of Chapter 1, along with Mark Booth, Marjorie Miller, Laurie Pounder, and Ilga Semeiks. Chapter 2 was written by Tom Bradley, James Baumgardner, Charles Betley, Julia Christensen, Sandra Christensen, Jeanne De Sa, Cynthia Dudzinski, and Eric Rollins. Susan Tanaka wrote Chapter 3, and Mark Lasky wrote Chapter 4. Appendix A was written by Taman W. Morris and Appendix B by Kent Christensen and Raymond Hall. The principal contributors to the revenue and spending estimates are listed in Appendix C.
Sherry Snyder, Leah Mazade, and Christian Spoor edited the report, and
Kathryn Quattrone prepared it for publication. The authors owe thanks to
Marion Curry, Linda Lewis Harris, Brianne Hutchinson, and Dorothy Kornegay,
who assisted in producing sections of the report. Laurie Brown prepared
the electronic versions for CBO's World Wide Web site.
Dan L. Crippen
Director
April 2000
ONE - AN OVERVIEW OF THE PRESIDENT'S POLICY PROPOSALS
TWO - THE PRESIDENT'S HEALTH INSURANCE PROPOSALS
THREE - THE PRESIDENT'S TRUST FUND PROPOSALS
FOUR - COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC FORECASTS
APPENDIXES
A - CBO's Baseline Budget Projections
B - Estimates of Outlays for National Defense
C - Major Contributors to the Revenue and Spending Projections
| TABLES | |
| S-1. | Comparison of CBO's and the Administration's Estimates of the President's Budget for 2001 |
| S-2. | CBO's Estimate of the President's Budgetary Proposals Relative to CBO's Baseline Projections Assuming Inflated Appropriations |
| S-3. | CBO's Estimate of the President's Budgetary Proposals Relative to CBO's Baseline Projections Assuming Frozen Appropriations |
| 1-1. | Estimates of Surpluses Under the President's Budgetary Proposals and CBO's Baseline Projections |
| 1-2. | Impact of the President's Budgetary Proposals on Cumulative On-Budget Surpluses |
| 1-3. | CBO's Estimate of the President's Budget |
| 1-4. | Major Differences Between CBO's and the Administration's Estimates of Spending for Selected Mandatory Programs, Fiscal Years 2001-2010 |
| 1-5. | Estimates of Discretionary Spending Under the President's Budgetary Proposals and CBO's Baseline Projections |
| 1-6. | Comparison of Discretionary Spending Enacted for 2000 with the President's Request for 2001 |
| 1-7. | Comparison of Discretionary Budget Authority Enacted for 2000 with the President's Request for 2001, by Budget Function |
| 1-8. | CBO's Estimate of the Effect of the President's Budgetary Proposals on Mandatory Programs |
| 1-9. | CBO's Estimate of the President's Revenue Proposals |
| 1-10. | Comparison of Discretionary Spending Authority for Grant Programs Enacted for 2000 with the President's Request for 2001, by Budget Function |
| 1-11. | Sources of Differences Between CBO's and the Administration's Estimates of the President's Budgetary Proposals |
| 1-12. | Comparison of CBO's and the Administration's Baselines |
| 2-1. | Ten-Year Estimates of the President's Health Insurance Proposals |
| 2-2. | CBO's March 2000 Baseline for Medicaid and the State Children's Health Insurance Program |
| 2-3. | CBO's Estimate of the President's Proposals for Medicaid and the State Children's Health Insurance Program |
| 2-4. | CBO's Estimate of the President's FamilyCare Proposal |
| 2-5. | Medicare Outlays Under CBO's Baseline Assumptions |
| 2-6. | Outlays for Medicare Benefits, by Sector, Under CBO's Baseline Assumptions |
| 2-7. | CBO's Estimate of Changes in Medicare Spending Under the President's Proposals |
| 2-8. | CBO's Estimate of the President's Proposals to Modify Traditional Medicare |
| 2-9. | CBO's Estimate of the President's Proposals to Expand Medicare Eligibility |
| 2-10. | Government Subsidies for Drug Costs Under the President's Proposal for a Prescription Drug Benefit in Medicare |
| 2-11. | CBO's Estimate of the President's Proposal for a Prescription Drug Benefit in Medicare |
| 2-12. | Cost per Participant Under the President's Proposal for a Prescription Drug Benefit in Medicare |
| 4-1. | Comparison of Economic Projections for Calendar Years 2000-2010 |
| A-1. | Mandatory Programs with Expiring Authorizations That Are Assumed to Continue in CBO's Baseline |
| A-2. | CBO's Projections of Discretionary Spending Under Alternative Versions of the Baseline |
| A-3. | The Budget Outlook Under Current Policies |
| A-4. | Changes in CBO's Estimates of Surpluses Since January 2000 Under Alternative Versions of the Baseline |
| A-5. | Credit Subsidy Reestimates Since 1999 |
| A-6. | CBO's Baseline Budget Projections, Assuming That Discretionary Spending Grows at the Rate of Inflation After 2000 |
| A-7. | CBO's Baseline Budget Projections, Assuming That Discretionary Spending Is Frozen at the Level Enacted for 2000 |
| A-8. | CBO's Baseline Budget Projections, Assuming That Discretionary Spending Equals CBO's Estimates of the Statutory Caps Through 2002 and Grows at the Rate of Inflation Thereafter |
| A-9. | CBO's Projections of Mandatory Spending |
| A-10. | CBO's Projections of Federal Interest Outlays Under Alternative Versions of the Baseline |
| A-11. | CBO's Projections of Federal Debt at the End of the Year Under Alternative Versions of the Baseline |
| B-1. | Differences Between CBO's and the Administration's Estimates of Outlays from the President's Budget Requests for Defense Discretionary Programs, 1994-2001 |
| B-2. | Accuracy of CBO's and the Administration's Estimates of Defense Discretionary Outlays, 1994-1999 |
| B-3. | Comparison of CBO's and the Administration's Estimates of Defense Discretionary Outlays for Fiscal Year 2001 |
| FIGURES | |
| 2-1. | Annual Growth of Federal Medicaid Outlays, 1978-2010 |
| 2-2. | Budget Authority and Outlays Under the President's FamilyCare Proposal, 2001-2010 |
| 3-1. | Projected Expenditures and Receipts for Social Security and Medicare Combined |
| 4-1. | Wages and Salaries Plus Corporate Before-Tax Profits |
| BOXES | |
| 3-1. | Overview of Federal Trust Funds |
| 3-2. | Who Will Pay for the Baby Boomers' Future Benefits? |
| 4-1. | The Potential Economic and Budgetary Effects of Higher Oil Prices |
