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SUMMARY
I - INTRODUCTION
II - EFFECTS OF REDUCTIONS IN THE OFFICER CORPS ON PERSONNEL POLICIES
APPENDIX A - DETAILS OF METHODS AND ASSUMPTIONS USED IN THIS STUDY
| TABLES | |
| S-l. | Projected Annual Reductions in the Officer Corps Below 1986 Strength |
| S-2. | Effects of officer Corps Reductions on DOPMA Limits in Each Service Beyond 1988 |
| S-3. | Effects of Officer Corps Reductions on Accessions in Each Service Beyond 1988 |
| 1. | Recent Changes in the Enlisted-to-Officer Ratio |
| 2. | All Commissioned Officers in the Armed Services, End of 1987 |
| 3. | Definition of Officer Populations Modeled by CBO |
| 4. | Projected Annual Reductions in the Officer Corps Below 1986 Strength |
| 5. | Baseline Projection for End Strength in the Army Officer Corps |
| 6. | Effect of Reductions on End Strength in the Army Officer Corps (Proportional) |
| 7. | Effect of Reductions on End Strength in the Army Officer Corps (Navy Exempt) |
| 8. | Baseline Projection for End Strength in the Air Force Officer Corps |
| 9. | Effect of Reductions on End Strength in the Air Force Officer Corps (Proportional) |
| 10. | Effect of Reductions on End Strength in the Air Force Officer Corps (Navy Exempt) |
| 11. | Baseline Projection for End Strength in the Navy Officer Corps |
| 12. | Estimated Reductions in the Navy Officer Corps by Naval Community for 1989 and 1990 |
| 13. | Effect of Reductions on End Strength in the Navy Officer Corps (Proportional) |
| A-1. | Commissioned Officer Reductions, 1987 |
| A-2. | Commissioned Officer Reductions, 1989-1990 (Proportional) |
| A-3. | Commissioned Officer Reductions, 1989-1990 (Navy Exempt) |
| BOX | |
| A-l. | Department of Defense's 1987 Allocation Scheme |
In 1986, the Congress mandated that the size of the military officer corps be reduced to percent below 1986 levels, with the cuts taking place in the years 1987 through 1989. When the Department of Defense sought to avoid or reduce the mandated reductions last year, the Congress permitted the pace of the reductions to be slowed--they can now extend through 1990--but retained the goal of a 6 percent reduction. It seems likely that the issue will again be the subject of debate this year.
This analysis by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) examines the effects of the officer corps reductions on the patterns of promotion within the military services and also on the numbers of new officers (that is, accessions) that the services can accept. It reflects service plans for accommodating the mandated reductions in 1988 but not the details of the budget amendment submitted for 1989.
The analysis was requested by the Subcommittee on Manpower and Personnel of the Senate Committee on Armed Services. In accordance with CBO's mandate to provide objective analysis, the paper makes no recommendations.
Marvin M. Smith of CBO's National Security Division prepared the paper
under the general supervision of Robert Hale and Neil Singer. The author
gratefully acknowledges the assistance of Joel Slackman and James West.
Amanda Balestrieri edited the manuscript and Rebecca J. Kees prepared it
for publication.
James Blum
Acting Director
February 1988
The armed services have always endeavored to strike a balance between the number of military personnel in their officer corps and enlisted ranks. Between 1980 and 1986, however, the officer corps grew by 12.1 percent, while the enlisted ranks increased by only 4.8 percent. . The resulting decline in the enlisted-to-officer ratio, coupled with pressures for reductions in the defense budget, raised sufficient concern for the Congress to legislate a 6 percent reduction in.the size of the active-duty commissioned officer corps.
Initially, the Congress called for a 1 percent reduction in 1987 from the fiscal year 1986 level, followed by additional cuts of 2 percent in 1988 and 3 percent in 1989. The 1 percent reduction took place in 1987, and the remaining schedule was modified by giving the Secretary of Defense the option of adhering to the original reductions or choosing slower cuts of 1 percent in 1988, 2 percent in 1989, and 2 percent in 1990. The Congress also left to the Department of Defense (DoD) the final allocation of the total reduction among the various military services.
The Congressionally mandated reductions in the officer corps are thought to have a major impact on two areas of force manning: the requisite number of officers to sustain combat capability and the personnel management system. Officials in DoD maintain that the officer reductions would not leave enough officers to meet combat needs. While this is clearly a matter of concern, this report does not examine the accuracy of this claim. Instead, this analysis addresses the effects of officer corps reductions on promotions and accessions by examining alternative ways of implementing current law.
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