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National Situation Update: Thursday, September 27, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

South:
With the exception of lingering Florida thunderstorms, much of the South should begin to enjoy more seasonal weather toward the end of the week.  Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over the Tennessee Valley.  Weak low pressure should shift north into North Carolina, as eastern North Carolina can expect to see significant rainfall.  High temperatures in the 70s and 80s should be widespread over much of the region.

Midwest: 
A stalled frontal boundary moving through the Ohio Valley should advance Thursday.  Local rainfall amounts over 2" are possible in the Ohio Valley through Thursday night.  An area of showers and thundershowers are forecasted Thursday in the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan's Upper Peninsula, and northern Illinois).  High pressure should dominate the Great Lakes, Ohio and Mississippi Valleys Friday, with temperatures expected to be in the 70s. 

West:
A wave of cool air is expected to move into the Northwest, as a batch of rain accompanies a frontal zone.  By Thursday night, the storm is forecasted to bring rain and cooler temperatures to the Pacific Northwest.  Dry weather is expected through much of the week for central and southern California and the desert Southwest.  High temperatures in the region should generally be in the 70s and 80s, except the Northwest which could have highs in the 60s.

Northeast:
A cold front should make its way across upstate New York, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia Thursday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected in these areas.  Following periods of heavy rainfall Friday in New England, high pressure should settle into the northeast, bringing mild temperatures.  Highs temperatures should range from the 70s in upstate New York to the mid 80s in Virginia (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Storm Karen
At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located about 970 miles east of the Windward Islands.  Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Karen is currently in an area of unfavorable upper-level winds and some further weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb.

Tropical Depression Thirteen
At 4:00 am EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located about 205 miles east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico.  The depression is moving towards the west-southwest near 3 mph and a slow motion towards the west is expected in the next 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.  Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.

Low Pressure Area 1
A trough of low pressure extending from the straits of Florida to the South Carolina coast is accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and showers stretching from the northwestern Bahamas northward for several hundred miles. A new area of low pressure could be developing off the Florida east-central coast and slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves northeastward.

Low Pressure Area 2
The tropical wave that was producing shower and thunderstorm activity over portions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola has diminished. 

Low Pressure Area 3
A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic just south of the Cape Verde Islands has become a little better organized this morning. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves westward at about 15 mph.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
No significant activity to report.

Central Pacific:
Isolated thunderstorms 125 to 200 miles south of the main Hawaiian Islands are associated with a weak surface trough moving to the west slowly. Development of a tropical cyclone within this area during the next 48 hrs is not expected.

Western Pacific:
No significant activity to report.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A cluster of earthquakes ranging from 5.4 to 6.9 magnitude occurred today in the New Ireland region of Papua New Guinea and the Kepulauan Mentawai region of Indonesia.  There were no reports of any tsunamis generated.
There was no significant earthquake activity in the U.S.or its Territories.
(NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)  

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2
States Most Affected:  Idaho 
National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, September 26, 2007:
Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 57 new fires.
New large fires:  0
Large fires contained:  0
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  1 
2007 acres burned to date: 8,137,624
Weather Discussion:  Dry and warmer weather will prevail across most of the West except for showers over portions of Montana. Rain will stretch from Texas to the Great Lakes with dry weather over the East. Southern Florida will see scattered showers. (National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)