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National Situation Update: Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

South
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the western Carolinas through Tennessee and the Deep South into southern Texas.  Showers and thunderstorms are also expected over the Florida Peninsula.

High temperatures will be mostly in the 80s and 90s in the region, but Oklahoma and West Texas are expected to be cooler.

Midwest
The majority of the northern Great Lakes region is forecast to be wet, windy, and cool.  The remainder of the Midwest will be dry, but windy conditions are expected in the Corn Belt.

High temperatures will range from the 50s in the Upper Midwest near the Canadian border to the 80s in limited areas of the High Plains, the lower Ohio Valley, and much of Kentucky.

Northeast
Showers and thundershowers are expected across most of the region with some locally heavy rain across parts of eastern New York, New Jersey, and far eastern Pennsylvania.

Highs will range from the upper 50s in far northern Maine to the low 90s in southeastern Virginia.

West
Most of the West will be dry through the week, but a few mountain thunderstorms across portions of Arizona and New Mexico are expected today.

The majority of the region will experience above average temperatures.  Highs will range from the 60s in the higher Rocky Mountains and portions of the Pacific Coast to over 110 degrees in and around the lower Colorado River Valley.

National Response Framework Released

On Monday, September 10, 2007, Administrator Paulison announced that FEMA had released the draft National Response Framework, successor to the National Response Plan, for a 30-day public comment period.  The Framework focuses on response and short-term recovery, articulates the doctrine, principles and architecture by which our nation prepares for, and responds to all-hazard disasters across all levels of government and all sectors of communities.  The Framework is responsive to federal, state and local requests for a streamlined document that is shorter, less bureaucratic and more user-friendly.

The Framework is intended for senior elected and appointed leaders, such as federal agency heads, state governors, mayors, tribal leaders and city managers.  Simultaneously, it informs emergency management practitioners by explaining the operating structures and tools routinely used by first responders and emergency managers at all levels of government. 

The Framework incorporates a number of key recommendations from more than 700 individuals representing federal, tribal, state and local governments, non-governmental agencies and associations, and the private sector, who participated in a review process that began in September, 2006. 

In addition to the core Framework, supporting documents, including Emergency Support Functions, Support and Incident Annexes and other appendices have also been updated and remain an integral part of the Framework.  There will be a 60-day comment period for these supplemental documents.  During this period, the existing National Response Plan remains in effect.  (FEMA HQ)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

September 10, 2007, marked the climatological peak of the hurricane season.  The only hurricanes that have formed, Dean and Felix, became category five hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  In addition, both Dean and Felix made landfall as category five hurricanes.  This is only the fourth year since 1950 that we have had more than one category five storm, and it is unprecedented for the first two hurricanes of the season to reach this level of intensity.

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Depression Gabrielle
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Gabrielle was located about 235 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts. 

Gabrielle is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph.  This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours with an increase in forward speed.  On this track, Gabrielle will pass well south of Nova Scotia today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Localized impact from Gabrielle was minimal and no requests for Federal assistance are expected.

Other Atlantic Activity
A broad area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave located about 1,300 miles east of the Windward Islands.  This system continues to show signs of organization and could develop into a tropical depression.  It is moving westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms persist just north of the Leeward Islands.  Significant development of this system is not anticipated.  It is moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph. 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico remain disorganized.  Some development of this system is still possible until it moves over land within the next day or so.

Eastern Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1,300 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California are associated with a tropical wave.  Development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur as the system moves westward around 10 to 15 mph.

Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Storm Danas
The final warning for Tropical Storm 11W (Danas) has been issued.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT, the storm was located approximately 880 miles east of Misawa, Japan and has tracked east-northeastward at 32 mph over the past six hours. 

Tropical storm activity is not expected to impact U.S. interests during the next 48 hours.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  3
States Most Affected:  Montana (9), Idaho (6).
National Fire Activity as of Monday, September 10, 2007:
Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 113 new fires.
New large fires:  2 
Large fires contained:  2
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  27
2007 acres burned to date:  7,378,715
Moonlight Fire - Located six miles northeast of Greenville, California, in the Plumas National Forest.  The Moonlight Fire is 63,141 acres in size and is 28% contained.  Two residences and one outbuilding have been destroyed; and one outbuilding has been damaged.  The fire threatens an additional 2,500 residences and 100 outbuildings.  Mandatory evacuations and area closures are in effect.  A Type 1 IMT and 3,438 personnel are assigned.  Steep, rocky terrain, heavy fuel loading, long range spotting, erratic high winds, extremely low live and dead fuel moisture levels all are contributing to extreme fire behavior.  

Weather Discussion:  Warm and dry weather conditions are predicted for the West.  A warm, dry offshore flow is expected to continue through Monday night over northern California and western Oregon.  The southeastern states are forecasted to have showers and thunderstorms.  (National Interagency Coordination Center, )

Disaster Declaration Activity

Joint Federal/State Individual Assistance (IA) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) began in Illinois on September 4, 2007.  Public Assistance (PA) PDAs began on September 10, 2007, and are continuing. (FEMA Regions, HQ)