Chemotherapy Model Inputs for Stage 4 Colorectal Cancer,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

White Men + White Women,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,Projected Trends Scenario,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Optimistic but Realistic Goals Scenario,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,30-59,,,,,60-74,,,,,75+,,,,,30-59,,,,,60-74,,,,,75+,,,,
Year,No Chemo,5FU,FOLFOX,5FU + irinotecan,FOLFOX + antibodies,No Chemo,5FU,FOLFOX,5FU + irinotecan,FOLFOX + antibodies,No Chemo,5FU,FOLFOX,5FU + irinotecan,FOLFOX + antibodies,No Chemo,5FU,FOLFOX,5FU + irinotecan,FOLFOX + antibodies,No Chemo,5FU,FOLFOX,5FU + irinotecan,FOLFOX + antibodies,No Chemo,5FU,FOLFOX,5FU + irinotecan,FOLFOX + antibodies
1970,64.08714727,35.91285273,0,0,0,87.5432384,12.4567616,0,0,0,99.06228562,0.937714382,0,0,0,64.08714727,35.91285273,0,0,0,87.5432384,12.4567616,0,0,0,99.06228562,0.937714382,0,0,0
1971,62.08714727,37.91285273,0,0,0,86.88831917,13.11168083,0,0,0,99.06228562,0.937714382,0,0,0,62.08714727,37.91285273,0,0,0,86.88831917,13.11168083,0,0,0,99.06228562,0.937714382,0,0,0
1972,60.08714727,39.91285273,0,0,0,85.8940492,14.1059508,0,0,0,99.06228562,0.937714382,0,0,0,60.08714727,39.91285273,0,0,0,85.8940492,14.1059508,0,0,0,99.06228562,0.937714382,0,0,0
1973,58.25490363,41.74509637,0,0,0,83.8940492,16.1059508,0,0,0,99.06228562,0.937714382,0,0,0,58.25490363,41.74509637,0,0,0,83.8940492,16.1059508,0,0,0,99.06228562,0.937714382,0,0,0
1974,55.83878181,44.16121819,0,0,0,82.94075157,17.05924843,0,0,0,98.59342843,1.406571573,0,0,0,55.83878181,44.16121819,0,0,0,82.94075157,17.05924843,0,0,0,98.59342843,1.406571573,0,0,0
1975,46.42265999,53.57734001,0,0,0,80.11610101,19.88389899,0,0,0,98.59342843,1.406571573,0,0,0,46.42265999,53.57734001,0,0,0,80.11610101,19.88389899,0,0,0,98.59342843,1.406571573,0,0,0
1976,42.05324842,57.94675158,0,0,0,78.15063905,21.84936095,0,0,0,98.59342843,1.406571573,0,0,0,42.05324842,57.94675158,0,0,0,78.15063905,21.84936095,0,0,0,98.59342843,1.406571573,0,0,0
1977,39.2599413,60.7400587,0,0,0,76.48563621,23.51436379,0,0,0,98.59342843,1.406571573,0,0,0,39.2599413,60.7400587,0,0,0,76.48563621,23.51436379,0,0,0,98.59342843,1.406571573,0,0,0
1978,37.45438441,62.54561559,0,0,0,75.05152465,24.94847535,0,0,0,98.59342843,1.406571573,0,0,0,37.45438441,62.54561559,0,0,0,75.05152465,24.94847535,0,0,0,98.59342843,1.406571573,0,0,0
1979,33.03457914,66.96542086,0,0,0,72.72062697,27.27937303,0,0,0,98.59342843,1.406571573,0,0,0,33.03457914,66.96542086,0,0,0,72.72062697,27.27937303,0,0,0,98.59342843,1.406571573,0,0,0
1980,30.35596231,69.64403769,0,0,0,71.44939702,28.55060298,0,0,0,98.12457124,1.875428765,0,0,0,30.35596231,69.64403769,0,0,0,71.44939702,28.55060298,0,0,0,98.12457124,1.875428765,0,0,0
1981,27.79304784,72.20695216,0,0,0,68.57177661,31.42822339,0,0,0,97.25734667,2.742653333,0,0,0,27.79304784,72.20695216,0,0,0,68.57177661,31.42822339,0,0,0,97.25734667,2.742653333,0,0,0
1982,25.23972301,74.76027699,0,0,0,65.82345264,34.17654736,0,0,0,94.51469333,5.485306665,0,0,0,25.23972301,74.76027699,0,0,0,65.82345264,34.17654736,0,0,0,94.51469333,5.485306665,0,0,0
1983,23.85415454,76.14584546,0,0,0,63.08085869,36.91914131,0,0,0,91.90755017,8.092449834,0,0,0,23.85415454,76.14584546,0,0,0,63.08085869,36.91914131,0,0,0,91.90755017,8.092449834,0,0,0
1984,22.28555303,77.71444697,0,0,0,59.42593947,40.57406053,0,0,0,86.62277401,13.37722599,0,0,0,22.28555303,77.71444697,0,0,0,59.42593947,40.57406053,0,0,0,86.62277401,13.37722599,0,0,0
1985,20.72153452,79.27846548,0,0,0,56.81772261,43.18227739,0,0,0,79.19154877,20.80845123,0,0,0,20.72153452,79.27846548,0,0,0,56.81772261,43.18227739,0,0,0,79.19154877,20.80845123,0,0,0
1986,19.34877259,80.65122741,0,0,0,54.11610101,45.88389899,0,0,0,76.11554841,23.88445159,0,0,0,19.34877259,80.65122741,0,0,0,54.11610101,45.88389899,0,0,0,76.11554841,23.88445159,0,0,0
1987,17.98059365,82.01940635,0,0,0,48.64237317,51.35762683,0,0,0,74.31060946,25.68939054,0,0,0,17.98059365,82.01940635,0,0,0,48.64237317,51.35762683,0,0,0,74.31060946,25.68939054,0,0,0
1988,16.61241472,83.38758528,0,0,0,45.95221162,54.04778838,0,0,0,72.44065016,27.55934984,0,0,0,16.61241472,83.38758528,0,0,0,45.95221162,54.04778838,0,0,0,72.44065016,27.55934984,0,0,0
1989,15.82811396,84.17188604,0,0,0,42.20961768,57.79038232,0,0,0,71.50567051,28.49432949,0,0,0,15.82811396,84.17188604,0,0,0,42.20961768,57.79038232,0,0,0,71.50567051,28.49432949,0,0,0
1990,15.04381321,84.95618679,0,0,0,39.85880688,60.14119312,0,0,0,70.33626226,29.66373774,0,0,0,15.04381321,84.95618679,0,0,0,39.85880688,60.14119312,0,0,0,70.33626226,29.66373774,0,0,0
1991,13.66646827,86.33353173,0,0,0,36.15718528,63.84281472,0,0,0,69.10183367,30.89816633,0,0,0,13.66646827,86.33353173,0,0,0,36.15718528,63.84281472,0,0,0,69.10183367,30.89816633,0,0,0
1992,12.69091095,87.30908905,0,0,0,34.11621293,65.88378707,0,0,0,68.60183367,31.39816633,0,0,0,12.69091095,87.30908905,0,0,0,34.11621293,65.88378707,0,0,0,68.60183367,31.39816633,0,0,0
1993,12.10703277,87.89296723,0,0,0,32.07524058,67.92475942,0,0,0,68.15384995,31.84615005,0,0,0,12.10703277,87.89296723,0,0,0,32.07524058,67.92475942,0,0,0,68.15384995,31.84615005,0,0,0
1994,11.44298556,88.55701444,0,0,0,29.73015981,70.26984019,0,0,0,67.70586623,32.29413377,0,0,0,11.44298556,88.55701444,0,0,0,29.73015981,70.26984019,0,0,0,67.70586623,32.29413377,0,0,0
1995,10.93927641,80.15016876,8.910554832,0,0,27.68918746,66.74781733,5.562995212,0,0,67.19286216,30.59836205,2.208775792,0,0,10.93927641,80.15016876,8.910554832,0,0,27.68918746,66.74781733,5.562995212,0,0,67.19286216,30.59836205,2.208775792,0,0
1996,10.15497566,19.87024929,69.97477505,0,0,25.68918746,17.76084118,56.54997135,0,0,66.51044984,10.06846575,23.4210844,0,0,10.15497566,19.87024929,69.97477505,0,0,25.68918746,17.76084118,56.54997135,0,0,66.51044984,10.06846575,23.4210844,0,0
1997,9.363036564,9.969269569,80.66769387,0,0,23.68918747,11.80029027,64.51052227,0,0,65.69799683,9.886408775,24.4155944,0,0,9.363036564,9.969269569,80.66769387,0,0,23.68918747,11.80029027,64.51052227,0,0,65.69799683,9.886408775,24.4155944,0,0
1998,8.297943162,6.764951141,84.9371057,0,0,22.34410669,9.7065088,67.94938451,0,0,64.75001311,9.899412845,25.35057405,0,0,8.297943162,6.764951141,84.9371057,0,0,22.34410669,9.7065088,67.94938451,0,0,64.75001311,9.899412845,25.35057405,0,0
1999,7.685193925,2.685812813,89.62899326,0,0,21.34410669,7.480410699,71.17548261,0,0,63.81503346,9.899412845,26.2855537,0,0,7.685193925,2.685812813,89.62899326,0,0,21.34410669,7.480410699,71.17548261,0,0,63.81503346,9.899412845,26.2855537,0,0
2000,7.393254839,2.695230203,89.91151496,0,0,19.34983672,6.096787399,74.55337589,0,0,62.88005381,8.961698462,28.15824773,0,0,7.393254839,2.695230203,89.91151496,0,0,19.34983672,6.096787399,74.55337589,0,0,62.88005381,8.961698462,28.15824773,0,0
2001,7.393254836,0,81.06043654,11.54630862,0,17.59578272,6.145837145,71.10583888,5.152541256,0,62.75001311,8.625616703,28.62437019,0,0,7.393254836,0,81.06043654,11.54630862,0,17.59578272,6.145837145,71.10583888,5.152541256,0,62.75001311,8.625616703,28.62437019,0,0
2002,7.393254836,0,39.35837971,53.24836546,0,17.59578272,6.145837145,32.10010886,44.15827128,0,62.61997241,8.625616703,9.290245616,19.46416527,0,7.393254836,0,39.35837971,53.24836546,0,17.59578272,6.145837145,32.10010886,44.15827128,0,62.61997241,8.625616703,9.290245616,19.46416527,0
2003,7.393254836,0,0,92.60674516,0,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,74.50432614,0,62.61997241,8.625616703,3.338816491,25.4155944,0,7.393254836,0,0,92.60674516,0,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,74.50432614,0,62.61997241,8.625616703,3.338816491,25.4155944,0
2004,7.393254836,0,0,39.35837971,53.24836546,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,31.04767646,43.45664968,62.61997241,8.224514594,1,10.22522527,17.93028773,7.393254836,0,0,39.35837971,53.24836546,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,31.04767646,43.45664968,62.61997241,8.224514594,1,10.22522527,17.93028773
2005,7.393254836,0,0,18.82407923,73.78266593,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,15.26313608,59.24119006,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.93497965,7.417551583,20.80298177,6.120100525,0,0,0,93.87989947,11.8912961,0,0,0,88.1087039,55.42861494,0,0,0,44.57138506
2006,7.393254836,0,0,16.65632287,75.95042229,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,12.96475768,61.53956846,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.93497965,6.948694392,21.27183896,6.072444689,0,0,0,93.92755531,11.09761032,0,0,0,88.90238968,54.22530861,0,0,0,45.77469139
2007,7.393254836,0,0,15.65632287,76.95042229,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,12.91805531,61.58627084,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.93497965,6.013714742,22.20681861,5.732849763,0,0,0,94.26715024,10.92506994,0,0,0,89.07493006,53.8242065,0,0,0,46.1757935
2008,7.393254836,0,0,14.65632287,77.95042229,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,12.26313608,62.24119006,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.8699593,5.544857551,22.74069615,5.120100525,0,0,0,94.87989947,10.24137266,0,0,0,89.75862734,53.42310439,0,0,0,46.57689561
2009,7.393254836,0,0,13.65632287,78.95042229,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,11.95902765,62.54529849,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.8699593,5.143755442,23.14179826,4.780505599,0,0,0,95.2194944,10.24137266,0,0,0,89.75862734,53.02200228,0,0,0,46.97799772
2010,6.751634542,0,0,13.5610112,79.68735426,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,11.61394688,62.89037926,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.8699593,4.677632983,23.60792072,3.875817271,0,0,0,96.12418273,9.557675382,0,0,0,90.44232462,52.17968785,0,0,0,47.82031215
2011,6.751634542,0,0,13.5610112,79.68735426,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,11.61394688,62.89037926,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.8699593,4.677632983,23.60792072,3.875817271,0,0,0,96.12418273,9.557675382,0,0,0,90.44232462,52.17968785,0,0,0,47.82031215
2012,6.751634542,0,0,13.5610112,79.68735426,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,11.61394688,62.89037926,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.8699593,4.677632983,23.60792072,3.875817271,0,0,0,96.12418273,9.557675382,0,0,0,90.44232462,52.17968785,0,0,0,47.82031215
2013,6.751634542,0,0,13.5610112,79.68735426,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,11.61394688,62.89037926,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.8699593,4.677632983,23.60792072,3.875817271,0,0,0,96.12418273,9.557675382,0,0,0,90.44232462,52.17968785,0,0,0,47.82031215
2014,6.751634542,0,0,13.5610112,79.68735426,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,11.61394688,62.89037926,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.8699593,4.677632983,23.60792072,3.875817271,0,0,0,96.12418273,9.557675382,0,0,0,90.44232462,52.17968785,0,0,0,47.82031215
2015,6.751634542,0,0,13.5610112,79.68735426,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,11.61394688,62.89037926,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.8699593,4.677632983,23.60792072,3.875817271,0,0,0,96.12418273,9.557675382,0,0,0,90.44232462,52.17968785,0,0,0,47.82031215
2016,6.751634542,0,0,13.5610112,79.68735426,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,11.61394688,62.89037926,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.8699593,4.677632983,23.60792072,3.875817271,0,0,0,96.12418273,9.557675382,0,0,0,90.44232462,52.17968785,0,0,0,47.82031215
2017,6.751634542,0,0,13.5610112,79.68735426,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,11.61394688,62.89037926,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.8699593,4.677632983,23.60792072,3.875817271,0,0,0,96.12418273,9.557675382,0,0,0,90.44232462,52.17968785,0,0,0,47.82031215
2018,6.751634542,0,0,13.5610112,79.68735426,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,11.61394688,62.89037926,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.8699593,4.677632983,23.60792072,3.875817271,0,0,0,96.12418273,9.557675382,0,0,0,90.44232462,52.17968785,0,0,0,47.82031215
2019,6.751634542,0,0,13.5610112,79.68735426,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,11.61394688,62.89037926,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.8699593,4.677632983,23.60792072,3.875817271,0,0,0,96.12418273,9.557675382,0,0,0,90.44232462,52.17968785,0,0,0,47.82031215
2020,6.751634542,0,0,13.5610112,79.68735426,17.59578272,6.145837145,1.754053998,11.61394688,62.89037926,62.61997241,8.224514594,0.8699593,4.677632983,23.60792072,3.875817271,0,0,0,96.12418273,9.557675382,0,0,0,90.44232462,52.17968785,0,0,0,47.82031215

From the Colorectal Cancer Mortality Projections Web site: http://cisnet.cancer.gov/projections/colorectal/ ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,