Risk Factor Model Inputs through 2020

Percent of Post-Menopausal Women using Hormone Replacement Therapy(1)

Black Females, Ages 40+(2)

Projected hormone replacement therapy use trend (2005-2020) (Line)
XY
20043.3%
20053.1%
20063%
20072.9%
20082.9%
20092.9%
20102.8%
20112.8%
20122.8%
20132.8%
20142.8%
20152.8%
20162.8%
20172.8%
20182.8%
20192.8%
20202.8%
Hormone replacement therapy use trend (1970-2004) (Line)
XY
19702.39%
19712.45%
19722.58%
19732.74%
19742.89%
19753.06%
19763.27%
19773.45%
19783.63%
19793.79%
19803.94%
19814.07%
19824.19%
19834.3%
19844.39%
19854.47%
19864.56%
19874.64%
19884.72%
19894.78%
19904.95%
19915.01%
19925.07%
19935.12%
19945.17%
19955.22%
19965.27%
19975.32%
19985.36%
19995.4%
20005.28%
20015.31%
20025.34%
20033.56%
20043.3%
NHANES data (3) (Scatter)
XY
19893%
19936.8%

 

Footnotes:

(1) Healthy People 2010 did not set an objective for post-menopausal hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use. In 2002, the Women's Health Initiative released its finding that use of post-menopausal HRT is associated with an increased risk of cardiac events such as heart attack, stroke, and blood clots and an increased risk of breast cancer. Although HRT is associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer and of bone fractures, the trial results suggest that the risk outweigh the benefits (Rossouw et al., JAMA 2002;288:321-33). Accordingly we did not set an optimistic but realistic goal for post-menopausal HRT use.

(2) Age adjusted to the 2000 standard population using age groups 40-49y, 50-59y, 60-69y, 70-79y, 80+y.

(3) Data on HRT use are only available from NHANES III; data from NHANES 1999-2001 are forthcoming.