Risk Factor Model Inputs through 2020

Percent Smoking

Projected smoking trend (2005-2020) (Line)
X	Y
2004	29.4%
2005	28%
2006	26.7%
2007	25.3%
2008	24%
2009	22.7%
2010	21.5%
2011	20.3%
2012	19.1%
2013	18%
2014	16.9%
2015	15.9%
2016	14.89%
2017	14%
2018	13.1%
2019	12.3%
2020	11.5%
Healthy People 2010 goal met ⁽²⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	29.38%
2005	25.11%
2006	21.47%
2007	18.36%
2008	15.73%
2009	13.48%
2010	11.75%
2011	11.14%
2012	10.58%
2013	10.05%
2014	9.6%
2015	9.19%
2016	8.76%
2017	8.35%
2018	7.96%
2019	7.6%
2020	7.3%
Optimistic but realistic goal ⁽²⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	29.4%
2005	26.4%
2006	23.6%
2007	21.1%
2008	18.89%
2009	16.9%
2010	15.1%
2011	14.49%
2012	13.9%
2013	13.3%
2014	12.7%
2015	12.2%
2016	11.6%
2017	11%
2018	10.5%
2019	10%
2020	9.5%
Smoking trend (1970-2004) (Line)
X	Y
1970	54.9%
1971	55%
1972	55%
1973	55%
1974	55%
1975	55%
1976	54.9%
1977	54.8%
1978	54.6%
1979	54.4%
1980	54.1%
1981	53.7%
1982	53.2%
1983	52.7%
1984	52.1%
1985	51.4%
1986	50.7%
1987	49.9%
1988	49.1%
1989	48.2%
1990	47.2%
1991	46.2%
1992	45.1%
1993	43.9%
1994	42.7%
1995	41.5%
1996	40.2%
1997	38.9%
1998	37.6%
1999	36.29%
2000	34.9%
2001	33.5%
2002	32.1%
2003	30.8%
2004	29.4%
NHANES data (Scatter)
X	Y
1973	54.6%
1978	50.3%
1989	44.8%
1993	42.5%
1999	30.2%
2001	30.6%
Healthy People 2010 U.S. Target (Scatter)
X	Y
2010	12%

Footnotes:

(1) Age adjusted to the 2000 standard population using age groups 25-34y, 34-44y, 45-64y, 65-74y.

(2) Smoking rates assumed to decline after the year 2010 based on the projected smoking trend for 2010-2020.