Risk Factor Model Inputs through 2020

Percent Obese⁽¹⁾

Projected obesity trend (2005-2020) (Line)
X	Y
2004	29.6%
2005	30.1%
2006	30.7%
2007	31.3%
2008	31.9%
2009	32.5%
2010	33.2%
2011	34.1%
2012	34.79%
2013	35.6%
2014	36.5%
2015	37.29%
2016	38.2%
2017	39%
2018	39.8%
2019	40.69%
2020	41.5%
Healthy People 2010 goal met ⁽³⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	29.6%
2005	26.9%
2006	24.31%
2007	21.7%
2008	19.37%
2009	17.2%
2010	15.36%
2011	15.35%
2012	15.43%
2013	15.5%
2014	15.57%
2015	15.63%
2016	15.61%
2017	15.65%
2018	15.69%
2019	15.67%
2020	15.65%
Optimistic but realistic goal ⁽³⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	29.6%
2005	29.6%
2006	29.5%
2007	29.5%
2008	29.4%
2009	29.4%
2010	29.4%
2011	29.4%
2012	29.4%
2013	29.5%
2014	29.6%
2015	29.7%
2016	29.6%
2017	29.6%
2018	29.7%
2019	29.7%
2020	29.6%
Obesity trend (1970-2004) (Line)
X	Y
1970	17.8%
1971	18.09%
1972	18.39%
1973	18.8%
1974	19%
1975	19.2%
1976	19.4%
1977	19.6%
1978	19.9%
1979	20.1%
1980	20.39%
1981	20.6%
1982	20.8%
1983	21%
1984	21.3%
1985	21.6%
1986	21.8%
1987	22.1%
1988	22.4%
1989	22.7%
1990	23%
1991	23.3%
1992	23.79%
1993	24.2%
1994	24.7%
1995	25.1%
1996	25.6%
1997	26.1%
1998	26.7%
1999	27.2%
2000	27.7%
2001	28.1%
2002	28.6%
2003	29.1%
2004	29.6%
NHANES data (Scatter)
X	Y
1973	18.3%
1978	17.1%
1989	20%
1993	22.9%
1999	29.9%
2001	27.6%
Healthy People 2010 U.S. Target (Scatter)
X	Y
2010	15%

Footnotes:

(1) Obese defined as body mass index 30+ kg/m%u00B2.

(2) Age adjusted to the 2000 standard population using age groups 25-39y, 40-59y, 60-74y.

(3) Age-specific trends applied after the year 2010 (no period trends).