Cancer Sites and Variables

Delay-adjusted incidence rates and trends are reported for all cancers combined (malignant only except for urinary bladder), for female breast in situ, for urinary bladder (in situ and malignant), and for 22 malignant cancer sites: melanoma (for all races combined and whites only), lung/bronchus, colon/rectum, prostate, female breast, liver and intrahepatic bile duct, pancreas, cervix uteri, corpus and uterus, ovary, testis, kidney and renal pelvis, brain and other nervous system, Hodgkin lymphoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, all leukemias, esophagus, larynx, myeloma, oral cavity and pharynx, thyroid, and stomach.

A delay distribution models the probability of a cancer being reported after a delay of d years (d = 2, 3, ...25). The number of cancers reported at each delay year is assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. Cases are removed as corrections to the data are made, and the probability of removing cases is modeled as a binomial distribution. To reduce the number of parameters that have to be estimated and to achieve stability in the tails of the delay distributions, an assumption is made that all cancer cases will be reported within 25 years of diagnosis.

Covariates Used in the Final Delay Distributions, By Cancer Site, and Race

The delay distributions were modeled as a function of covariates using a discrete-time proportional hazards model. The following potential covariates are included: age at diagnosis, sex, diagnosis year, delay times, and race/ethnicity. For each cancer site, a delay distribution was calculated for all races combined and a separate delay distribution was calculated for whites and blacks. In the distributions for all races combined, if a patient's race value changed between two submission years the change of value does not contribute to the delay model. For melanoma, only all races combined and whites were analyzed because melanoma is rare for blacks

Potential Covariates

Delay Time d:
Group 1 : d > 2 or d > 3
Group 2 : d > 2, d > 3, d > 4, or d > 5
Group 3 : d > 2, d > 3, ... , d > 10

Year of Diagnosis:
Individual years from 1981 - 2005
or
Year groups (1981-1985, 1986-1990, or 1991-2005)

Age at Diagnosis:
<50, 50-64, 65+

Sex:
Male, Female

Race/Ethnicity:
White, Black

Covariates contributing to the delay distributions

All Sites, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2, Year of Diagnosis (Individual years), Sex

All Sites, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual years), Sex, Race

Brain & CNS, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Sex

Brain & CNS, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2, Age at Diagnosis, Sex, Race

In situ Female Breast, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 3, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years)

In situ Female Breast, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Race

Female Breast, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years)

Female Breast, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Race

Cervix, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2

Cervix, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1

Colorectal, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Year Groups)

Colorectal, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Race

Corpus & Uterus, NOS, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2, Year of Diagnosis (Year Groups)

Corpus & Uterus, NOS, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Race

Esophagus, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2

Esophagus, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2, Sex, Race

Hodgkin Lymphoma, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Year Groups)

Hodgkin Lymphoma, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Year Groups)

Kidney and Renal Pelvis, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years)

Kidney and Renal Pelvis, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2, Race

Larynx, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1

Larynx, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Race

Leukemia, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Age at Diagnosis

Leukemia, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years)

Liver & IBD, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1 Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years)

Liver & IBD, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Race

Lung & Bronchus, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Year Groups), Sex

Lung & Bronchus, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Race

Melanoma of the Skin, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years)

Melanoma of the Skin, White Patients Only
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years)

Myeloma, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Sex

Myeloma, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Sex, Race

Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, , Year of Diagnosis (Year Groups)

Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Race

Oral Cavity and Pharynx, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Sex

Oral Cavity and Pharynx, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Sex

Ovary, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 3, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years)

Ovary, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 3, Race

Pancreas, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Sex

Pancreas, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Sex, Race

Prostate, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Age at Diagnosis

Prostate, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Age at Diagnosis, Race

Stomach, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Sex

Stomach, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Sex, Race

Testis, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1

Testis, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years)

Thyroid, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years)

Thyroid, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 1, Year of Diagnosis (Individual Years), Sex

Urinary Bladder, All Races Combined
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2

Urinary Bladder, White and Black
Contributing Covariates: Delay Time Group 2, Year of Diagnosis (Year Groups), Sex, Race