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AN ANALYSIS OF PRESIDENT CARTER'S
BUDGETARY PROPOSALS FOR FISCAL YEAR 1982
 
 
January 1981
 
 
NOTES

Unless, otherwise indicated, all years referred to in this report are fiscal years.

Details in the text and tables of this report may not add to totals because of rounding.
 
 
PREFACE

An Analysis of President Carter's Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 1982 was prepared at the request of the House Committee on Appropriations to assist Members and staff in preparing for overview hearings on the 1982 budget. The report analyzes the economic outlook for the next two years and the fiscal year impact of President Carter's budgetary proposals. It also examines the major features of the Carter Administration's revenue and spending proposals for 1982 and compares them with past trends and current laws. The effect of the latest Administration budget estimates for the current fiscal year (1981) is presented. Finally, the report contains a brief discussion of the federal credit budget, off-budget outlays, and the federal debt.

The report was prepared by staffs of the Budget Analysis, Fiscal Analysis, and Tax Analysis Divisions, under the supervision of James Blum, William Beeman, and James Verdier. Thelma L. Jones supervised the production of the report, Patricia H. Johnston and Francis S. Pierce edited the manuscript, and it was typed for publication by the Budget Analysis Division.
 

Alice M. Rivlin
Director
January 1981
 
 

CONTENTS
 

SUMMARY

CHAPTER I. THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND THE CARTER ADMINISTRATIONS FISCAL POLICY

CHAPTER II. REVENUE ESTIMATES AND PROPOSALS

CHAPTER III. SPENDING ESTIMATES AND PROPOSALS

CHAPTER IV. THE CREDIT BUDGET

CHAPTER V. THE BUDGET BY FUNCTION

APPENDIX
 

TABLES
 
1.  THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION'S ECONOMIC FORECAST, CBO'S PRELIMINARY PROJECTIONS, AND THE FORECAST RANGE OF FOUR LARGE-SCALE COMMERCIAL FORECASTERS, 1981-1982
2.  THE FEDERAL UNIFIED BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEARS 1980-1982
3.  DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION'S SPENDING AND TAX PROPOSALS AND THE CBO BASELINE ESTIMATES
4.  SHORT-RUN ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF PRESIDENT CARTER'S FISCAL PROPOSALS
5.  LONGER-TERM TRENDS IN OUTPUT, PRODUCTIVITY, INFLATION, AND UNEMPLOYMENT, 1948-1980
6.  ADMINISTRATION'S LONG-RANGE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS, CALENDAR YEARS 1983-1986
7.  BUDGET REVENUES BY SOURCE AND CBO ESTIMATES OF PRESIDENT CARTER'S BUDGET REQUESTS
8.  ADMINISTRATION AND CBO ESTIMATES OF THE CARTER REVENUE REQUEST
9.  CARTER BUDGET LEGISLATIVE AND ADMINISTRATIVE PROPOSALS FOR REVENUES
10.  REVENUE EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE PROPOSALS TO LIBERALIZE DEPRECIATION
11.  REVENUE REDUCTIONS FROM DIFFERENT TYPES OF INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX CUTS
12.  DISTRIBUTION OF TAX REDUCTIONS FROM INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX CUT PROPOSALS, BY INCOME GROUP
13.  TOTAL UNIFIED BUDGET SPENDING FOR FISCAL YEARS 1981 AND 1982
14.  SPENDING ESTIMATES FOR FISCAL YEAR 1981
15.  CBO SPENDING REESTIMATES FOR FISCAL YEAR 1981
16.  ESTIMATED OUTLAY SAVINGS FROM CARTER ADMINISTRATION LEGISLATIVE PROPOSALS
17.  COMPARISON OF ADMINISTRATION AND CBO ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS FOR SPENDING ESTIMATES
18.  CBO PRELIMINARY REESTIMATES OF PRESIDENT CARTER'S SPENDING TOTALS FOR FISCAL YEAR 1982
19.  FEDERAL RETIREMENT AND DISABILITY PROGRAMS WITH BENEFITS INDEXED TO CHANGES IN THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
20.  OUTLAYS OF OFF-BUDGET FEDERAL ENTITIES
21.  DISTRIBUTION OF FEDERAL FINANCING BANK OUTLAYS (NET)
22.  ESTIMATES OF THE LEVEL OF PUBLIC DEBT SUBJECT TO STATUTORY LIMIT
23.  THE CREDIT BUDGET TOTALS
24.  THE CREDIT BUDGET TOTALS, ADJUSTED FOR DOUBLE COUNTING IN DIRECT LOANS
25.  MAJOR FEDERAL CREDIT PROGRAMS AND MAJOR ACTIVITY CHANGES BETWEEN FISCAL YEARS 1981 AND 1982
26.  CONGRESSIONAL ACTION ON LIMITATION REQUESTS FOR FISCAL YEAR 1981
27.  LIMITATIONS REQUESTS IN THE FISCAL YEAR 1982 BUDGET
28.  THE CREDIT BUDGET TOTALS FOR 1981
29.  NET LOAN OUTLAYS


 
SUMMARY

President Carter's budget for fiscal year 1982 recommends outlays of $739.3 billion, revenues of $711.8 billion, and a unified budget deficit of $27.5 billion. The latest budget estimates for 1981 show a $30 billion increase in outlays over the level approved by the Congress in its second budget resolution, and a unified budget deficit of $55.4 billion. If the outlays of off-budget entities are included, the total budget deficits are $78.4 billion in 1981 and $45.8 billion in 1982, as shown in the following table. As a result of these deficits, the federal debt subject to limit is projected to exceed $1 trillion during the next fiscal year.

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