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July 21, 1999
Honorable John R. Kasich
Chairman
Committee on the Budget
U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20515
Dear Mr. Chairman:
In response to questions transmitted to us by your staff, I have enclosed a table that estimates the impact on April's Congressional Budget Resolution of substituting the tax cuts described in the manager's amendment to the bill recently passed by the Ways and Means Committee for the tax cuts in the April Resolution. As the table indicates, even with the greater tax cuts found to the Ways and Means bill, the revised Resolution would still produce on-budget surpluses in every year from 2000 to 2009 and a cumulative on-budget surplus of $257 billion.
I hope this information is useful to you.
Sincerely,
Dan L. Crippen
cc: Honorable John M. Spratt, Jr., Ranking Democratic Member
Enclosure
CBO Estimate of the Congressional Budget Resolution for Fiscal Year 2000 using Ways & Means tax cut proposal (amended) (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars) |
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1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Total 2000- 2009 |
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Baseline Deficit (-) or Surplus | |||||||||||||||
On-Budget | -4 | 14 | 38 | 82 | 75 | 85 | 92 | 129 | 146 | 157 | 178 | 996 | |||
Off-Budget | 125 | 147 | 155 | 164 | 172 | 181 | 195 | 205 | 217 | 228 | 235 | 1,901 | |||
Total | 121 | 161 | 193 | 246 | 247 | 266 | 286 | 334 | 364 | 385 | 413 | 2,896 | |||
Effect on the Surplus of the Budget Resolution's Policies (with amended House tax cut proposal)a | |||||||||||||||
Revenues | 0 | -4 | -16 | -34 | -45 | -56 | -85 | -102 | -110 | -143 | -195 | -791 | |||
Outlays | |||||||||||||||
Discretionary | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | -6 | -24 | -42 | -55 | -70 | -180 | |||
Mandatory | 0 | -0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -0 | -0 | -1 | -1 | 4 | |||
Net interest | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 26 | 33 | 123 | |||
Subtotal | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 6 | -7 | -21 | -29 | -38 | -53 | |||
Total | 0 | -5 | -18 | -38 | -61 | -71 | -91 | -94 | -90 | -114 | -157 | -738 | |||
Surplus or Deficit (-) Under the Policies of the Budget Resolution as Estimated by CBO | |||||||||||||||
On-Budget | -4 | 10 | 20 | 45 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 34 | 57 | 43 | 21 | 257 | |||
Off-Budget | 125 | 147 | 155 | 164 | 172 | 181 | 195 | 205 | 217 | 228 | 235 | 1,901 | |||
Total | 120 | 157 | 175 | 209 | 186 | 195 | 195 | 240 | 274 | 271 | 256 | 2,158 | |||
Memorandum: | |||||||||||||||
Debt Held by the Public | |||||||||||||||
Baseline | 3,618 | 3,473 | 3,297 | 3,066 | 2,835 | 2,584 | 2,312 | 1,992 | 1,640 | 1,267 | 865 | n.a. | |||
Budget resolution as estimated by CBO | 3,618 | 3,478 | 3,319 | 3,126 | 2,956 | 2,776 | 2,595 | 2,369 | 2,107 | 1,848 | 1,603 | n.a. | |||
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SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office. | |||||||||||||||
NOTE: n.a. = not applicable. | |||||||||||||||
a. These projections assume that discretionary outlays will follow the path specified in Concurrent Resolution on the Budget for Fiscal Year 2000 with two exceptions. The effect of the 1999 supplemental appropriations bill (P.L. 106-31), which was enacted after the resolution was passed, has been added to the resolution totals. Also, the projections include spending from contingent emergencies. Such spending was excluded from the fiscal year 2000 resolution. | |||||||||||||||
b. Less than $500 million. | |||||||||||||||
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